Schweinfurt vs Rot-Weiss Essen: match statistics

Rot-Weiss Essen sit 2nd in the table while Schweinfurt are 20th; this season Essen have scored 62 goals versus Schweinfurt’s 29, a 33-goal differential. In their last 5 matches Essen have netted 12 goals and won all 5 fixtures (averaging 3.0 points per game), whereas Schweinfurt have scored 8 and have a 3W-2L record (1.8 points per game). Chance quality favors the visitors: Essen average 14.53 shots and 5.47 on target per match with xG 1.71, Schweinfurt average 11.93 shots and 4.73 on target with xG 1.44; shot conversion 13% vs 11% also supports the visitors. The home defense is vulnerable — Schweinfurt have conceded 73 goals this season and 1.93 goals per game away, and hosts fail to score in 27% of home matches, while Essen fail to score in only 13% of their away games. Considering these numbers and form (Essen 5/5 wins), I back an away victory and estimate probabilities: 65% Rot-Weiss Essen, 20% draw, 15% Schweinfurt.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Schweinfurt 75% and Rot-Weiss Essen 87%, averaging 81% and significantly exceeding the league BTTS average of 63%. In terms of goals, Schweinfurt scores 2.06 and concedes 1.19 per match, while Essen scores 1.93 and concedes 2.00; their seasonal xG are 1.77 (Schweinfurt) vs 1.71 (Essen), and xG against are 1.65 and 1.46, indicating both sides regularly generate ~1.7 xG and are susceptible to conceded goals. In the last 5 matches we see mixed signals: Schweinfurt has only 40% BTTS and scores 1.6 while conceding 2.2, whereas Essen has 60% BTTS and is in form — scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.0, so Essen looks more certain to score while Schweinfurt more frequently allows goals. Additionally, Schweinfurt records 25% clean sheets vs 7% for Essen, but seasonal over 2.5 is 56% (Schweinfurt) and 73% (Essen) with a league average of 3.14 goals, which combined with high shot volumes (15.13 vs 14.53) and shots on target (5.75 vs 5.47) supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Considering strong seasonal BTTS metrics (avg ~81%), active attacks and contradictory but not decisive defensive signals in the last 5 matches, I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 78% vs 22% for No Goal.

Seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 81% for Schweinfurt and 93% for Rot-Weiss Essen (average 87%), which strongly supports at least 2 goals in the match. An xG-based model gives expected ~1.62 goals for the home side (xG_for 1.77 vs opponent xG_against 1.46) and ~1.68 for the away side (xG_for 1.71 vs opponent xG_against 1.65), total 3.30. Both teams register a similar number of shots on target (5.75 vs 5.47) and have conversion rates of 14% vs 13%, while BTTS stands at 75% and 87%, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. In the last 5 matches Rot-Weiss Essen averages 2.4 goals and is on a 5-win run, whereas Schweinfurt concedes an average of 2.2 goals, so the goal advantage favors the visitors. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 (assessed probability 88%), Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~65%), while Over 3.5 is effectively a toss-up (~48%).

Schweinfurt led at half-time in 63% of home matches and averages 1.19 goals in the first half, while Rot‑Weiss Essen averages 0.47 first-half goals and led at the break in only 13% of away matches, which strongly supports the home side leading at the break. The hosts win 63% of games at home and have 34 points at half-time with an average of 2.13 half-time points, whereas the visitors have 13 half-time points and an average of 0.87, so Schweinfurt holds a clear HT advantage. Offensively Schweinfurt generates xG 1.77 versus the visitors’ 1.71, averaging 15.13 shots (5.75 on target) with a conversion rate of 14%, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead and closing out the match with a win. Essen are in excellent form (5 wins in their last 5 matches and they led at the break in 80% of that sample), but they concede on average 2.0 goals per match over the season and have led at half-time in only 13% of away fixtures this season, so their run does not offset the home advantage; therefore I forecast 44% for 1/1 as the strongest signal, assigning lower probabilities to other scenarios (e.g. 1/X 13%, X/1 10%).