Scunthorpe United vs Harrogate Town: match statistics

Harrogate Town sit 6th and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning 3 of them, while Scunthorpe United are 18th and have managed just 4 points over the same period. The visitors have scored 13 goals in their last five fixtures, compared with 8 for the hosts, while their shot conversion rate stands at 17%, versus 16% for their opponents. Scunthorpe do, however, offer solid attacking output at home, averaging 2 goals and generating an xG of 1.69, so they should pose a genuine threat. Harrogate’s defensive weakness away from home could prove decisive, as they concede an average of 2 goals and allow chances worth 1.42 xG, although the hosts have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match. The visitors’ superior current form and greater attacking consistency point towards a narrow away win, with both teams finding the net.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: Scunthorpe and Harrogate have a 100% BTTS rate this season, compared with the league average of 68%. Neither side has kept a single clean sheet, while the hosts score an average of 3.0 goals and concede 1.67, whereas the visitors score 2.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match. In their last five matches, BTTS occurred in 80% of Scunthorpe’s games and in every Harrogate game, with averages of 1.6 and 2.6 goals scored, respectively. The quality of chances created also supports goals for both sides: Scunthorpe’s xG stands at 2.08 and Harrogate’s at 1.40, while their defences allow 1.05 and 1.42 xG, respectively. The BTTS scenario is not certain due to the limited seasonal sample, but the attacking data and lack of effective defending clearly support the “BTTS - Yes” pick.

Both teams have gone over 1.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far, while the league average stands at 3.14 goals per game. Scunthorpe average 3.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded at home, whereas Harrogate average 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded away from home. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: the hosts create chances worth 2.08 xG, while the visitors record 1.40 xG, with neither side keeping a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Harrogate have averaged 2.6 goals scored, while both teams have seen both teams score in 80% and 100% of their respective matches, clearly strengthening the case for Over 1.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Harrogate win, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches and then won the second half in 80% of cases. Scunthorpe are in poor current form: they have lost three of their last five matches, average just 0.4 goals before the break, and went into half-time trailing in 60% of those games. After the break, Harrogate average 2.0 goals across their last five matches, compared with Scunthorpe’s 1.2, which clearly strengthens the case for a late turnaround in the visitors’ favour. The hosts do have better season-long home figures, with an xG of 2.08 compared with Harrogate’s 1.40, but recent points form favours the visitors: 2.0 points per game over their last five appearances versus Scunthorpe’s 0.8. Both teams regularly feature in open matches, and Harrogate’s average of 4.4 goals across their last five games suggests that a half-time draw could be settled after the interval.