Scunthorpe United vs Solihull Moors: match statistics

Scunthorpe have a clear edge in chance quality at home: their average xG stands at 1.53, while Solihull allow opponents as much as 2.99 xG away from home. The hosts concede an average of just 1 goal per game on their own ground, compared with 5 for the visitors, and with neither side keeping a clean sheet, this strongly points to Scunthorpe creating several goalscoring opportunities. Solihull have lost all of their away matches so far and have conceded 10 goals in 3 games across the season, while suffering 4 defeats in their last 5 matches. However, the visitors are effective away from home, averaging 2 goals with an 18% shot conversion rate, so a goal for them is likely and a draw cannot be ruled out. Although Scunthorpe have recorded a draw at home so far, their superior possession, 50% compared with 40%, along with a significantly more solid defence, gives the hosts the best chance of securing victory.

The signal for both teams to score is strengthened by the fact that Solihull Moors averaged 2.0 goals per match, while Scunthorpe United conceded 2.5. The hosts do have a poor seasonal average of 0.5 goals scored and failed to find the net in 50% of their matches, but their opponents have not kept a single clean sheet and conceded as many as 5.0 goals per match. In their last five games, Scunthorpe averaged 1.0 goal scored, while Solihull allowed opponents 2.8 goals, which significantly increases the likelihood of the hosts finding the net. The attacking potential of both teams is also confirmed by their xG figures from the last five matches, standing at 1.17 and 1.14, while each side recorded BTTS in 60% of those games. Solihull’s 100% seasonal BTTS record and the lack of clean sheets on both sides support the “BTTS - Yes” option, although Scunthorpe’s inefficiency reduces confidence in this market.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in 100% of their league matches to date. Solihull have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per game in their last five matches, while Scunthorpe have scored 1.0 goal per game over the same period, giving the hosts a realistic chance of contributing to the scoreline. The visitors have averaged 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while Scunthorpe have allowed opponents to score 1.4 goals, so their goal is also well justified. The xG models indicate 1.17 for Scunthorpe and 1.14 for Solihull over their last five matches, while the visitors' weak defence increases the hosts' projection to 1.48 goals. Over 2.5 goals also has a positive basis, but with Scunthorpe recording this outcome in 40% of their last five matches, Over 1.5 goals offers the safer and clearer edge.

A draw at half-time followed by a Scunthorpe win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts have conceded only 0.6 goals per match before the break across their last five games. Solihull have scored 1.0 first-half goal per game during this period, but have also been trailing or level at half-time in as many as 60% of their last five appearances. After the interval, the case for the hosts becomes significantly stronger: Scunthorpe average 0.8 goals scored, while Solihull concede as many as 1.8 goals in the second halves of their last five matches. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.28, particularly favourable against the visitors’ average xG conceded of as much as 2.99. Both teams have won only 20% of their last five matches, but Solihull have lost 80% of those games, strengthening the scenario of a Scunthorpe turnaround after half-time.