SD Eibar vs Ceuta: match statistics

SD Eibar is the clear favorite: at home they win 65% of matches, score an average of 1.65 goals and concede only 0.71 goals per game, and in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw (6 goals scored). Ceuta away has only an 18% win rate, scores on average 1.00 goal and concedes 2.00 goals per game, and in the last 5 fixtures recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with 13 goals conceded. The quality gap in chances is confirmed by xG and offensive activity: Eibar’s home xG is 1.71 versus Ceuta’s away xG of 1.07, and 5.41 shots on target and 14.59 shots per game compared to 2.88 shots on target and 9.35 shots for the visitors. Considering the hosts’ better defense (47% clean sheets vs 24%), an average of 2.6 points per game in Eibar’s last 5 matches versus 0.8 for Ceuta, and the advantage in xG and chance volume, I tip the home win; I estimate probabilities at approximately 70% for Eibar, 18% for a draw and 12% for Ceuta.

Seasonal metrics suggest a moderate chance for BTTS: Eibar has BTTS at 63%, Ceuta 53%, and the league average is 55%. However, recent form is divergent — in the last 5 matches Eibar records only 20% BTTS and has conceded a total of 1 goal (0.2 per match), while Ceuta in the last 5 matches has 80% BTTS and has conceded 13 goals (2.6 per match). In chance-creation terms Eibar averages 4.69 shots on target with 1.56 goals per season (xG 1.47), and Ceuta has 2.88 shots on target and 1.0 goal (xG 1.07), which gives the home side an offensive advantage. The sum of this data indicates it is more likely Eibar will exploit Ceuta's weak defence while maintaining a strong defensive record (0.2 conceded goals in 5 matches), i.e. the scenario "Eibar to score, Ceuta not" is more probable. For these reasons I recommend BTTS = NO.

Seasonal metrics indicate a combined goal tempo around 2.56: Eibar scores 1.56 goals on average with xG 1.47, Ceuta 1.00 with xG 1.07, yielding combined xG 2.54. Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals — 75% for Eibar and 76% for Ceuta — so Over 1.5 is a strong signal (I assess probability around 85%). At the 2.5 line signals are mixed: Eibar has 63% of season matches Over 2.5, Ceuta 53%, but in the last 5 games Eibar only 20% Over 2.5 while Ceuta 80%, hence I assign a moderate probability for Over 2.5 at ~60%. Over 3.5 is unlikely — season rates 19% (Eibar) and 35% (Ceuta) — therefore Under 3.5 appears safer (72%). Additionally Eibar registers more shots (12.25 vs 9.35) and shots on target (4.69 vs 2.88) and in the last 5 matches conceded only 1 goal compared to Ceuta’s 13 conceded, which supports the Over 1.5 pick; I expect about 1.65 home goals and 0.95 away goals (total 2.60).

Eibar has a clear advantage in the first half — they led at the break in 9 matches (56%) this season, and in the last 5 fixtures they were leading in 4 of 5 (80%). Half-time statistics confirm this trend: the home side scores on average 0.94 goals by half-time versus Ceuta’s 0.59, while the visitors concede an average of 1.12 goals before the break, which facilitates Eibar taking and holding a lead. Over the full match Eibar records 1.56 goals scored with an xG of 1.47 and 4.69 shots on target versus Ceuta’s 1.00 goals, xG 1.07 and 2.88 shots on target, so both the quantity and quality of chances favor the hosts. Additionally, Eibar wins 69% of matches and averages 2.13 points per game compared to Ceuta’s 18% win rate and 0.82 points, so we assume a conversion of a lead into a victory of around 80% (56%*80% ≈ 44.8%), which makes 1/1 the most likely Half-Time/Full-Time scenario; alternatives are draw at half-time and home win (X/1) or draw/draw (X/X) with less numerical support.