SD Eibar vs Granada CF: match statistics

Granada CF lead the table, remain unbeaten after 3 rounds, and have collected 10 points in their last five matches, while SD Eibar have earned 8 over the same period. The visitors are more clinical, averaging 1.5 goals away from home with an 11% conversion rate, whereas Eibar score 1 goal per home match and convert only 7% of their shots. Granada’s key advantage is their defensive record, conceding just 0.5 goals per game away from home compared with Eibar’s 1.5 goals conceded at home. The hosts do create better-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.57 compared with Granada’s 1.36, but the visitors have a positive away goal difference (+2) and have lost neither of their two matches on the road. This promises to be a closely contested fixture, but Granada’s superior efficiency and tighter defence slightly favour an away win.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as Eibar have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches and have yet to concede a goal. Granada score an average of 1.5 goals away from home, but have recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches, while their average goals conceded stands at just 0.6. Eibar are an offensive threat, averaging 6 shots on target and scoring 2.0 goals at home, so the most likely No Goal scenario is a home win to nil. Although Granada’s xG is 1.36 and Eibar allow opponents an xG of 1.75, the hosts’ very strong defensive results and the league BTTS average of 42% slightly support the view that at least one team will fail to score.

Eibar’s last five matches produced an average of 2.8 goals, while Granada’s averaged 2.2, indicating moderate but not exceptionally low scoring potential. During this period, Eibar scored 1.8 goals per match and conceded 1.0, whereas Granada scored 1.6 but allowed opponents just 0.6 goals. Both teams had at least three goals in only 40% of their matches, identical to the league average of 42%, meaning Over 2.5 goals is not a clear baseline scenario. However, the xG estimates are relatively high, at 1.44 for Eibar and 1.36 for Granada, so two or three goals remain realistic. The Under 3.5 goals line offers the strongest edge, as Eibar has yet to play a four-goal match, while Granada exceeded this line in only 50% of their matches.

A draw at half-time followed by an Eibar win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level at the break in 50% of their last five matches, while Granada scored no more than 0.4 goals before half-time per game over the same period. Eibar, however, averaged 1.5 first-half goals, clearly outperforming Granada, while Granada’s average of 0.75 goals conceded before the break suggests that the hosts may also take control after half-time. Eibar’s advantage is further strengthened by their home form: 2.0 goals scored and none conceded per match, along with a perfect winning record in the available sample. Granada are in good form, with a 60% win rate in their last five matches and an average of 1.6 goals, so a draw or a late Granada turnaround remains a realistic possibility. Nevertheless, Eibar average 6 shots on target compared with Granada’s 4 and have a slightly higher xG, 1.44 versus the opponents’ 1.36, which ultimately tilts the forecast in favour of the hosts.