SD Eibar vs Real Valladolid: match statistics

SD Eibar have the better record across their last five matches: 2 wins and 2 draws, while Real Valladolid have won 3 times but also suffered 2 defeats. The hosts create significantly more high-quality chances at home, recording an average xG of 1.92 compared with the visitors’ 1.02 away from home, while also averaging 16 shots and 5 shots on target per match. Valladolid failed to score in their only league away game, managing just 1 shot on target and creating no clear-cut chances, which, with 100% of their away matches ending without a goal, is a significant warning sign. Eibar also lost their only home match and conceded 3 goals, but their possession advantage—65% compared with 53%—and attacking potential support a potential rebound. Both teams’ defences leave room for goals, so a draw is a realistic alternative, but a home win is marginally more likely.

The last five matches indicate good attacking form from both teams: Eibar scored an average of 2.0 goals, while Real Valladolid averaged 2.2 goals per game. BTTS occurred in 60% of Eibar’s matches and 40% of Valladolid’s matches during this period, providing a moderately positive signal for goals at both ends. Both teams conceded 1.2 goals per game in their last five appearances, so neither defence was particularly solid. Eibar generated an average of 1.34 xG, while Valladolid managed only 0.92 xG, but the hosts allowed opponents 1.29 xG, increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. The BTTS - Yes pick is slightly stronger than the scenario in which at least one team fails to score, although the league-average BTTS rate of 45% limits confidence in this prediction.

Both teams have been showing clearly attacking form recently: Eibar are averaging 2.0 goals per match across their last five appearances, while Valladolid are averaging 2.2. At the same time, both sides have conceded 1.2 goals per game over this period, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. Eibar’s average xG stands at 1.34, compared with Valladolid’s 0.86 xG conceded, while the visitors are creating 0.92 xG and the hosts are allowing opponents 1.29 xG. In the last five matches involving both teams, the 2.5-goal line has been exceeded in 60% of cases, but the league average of 2.36 goals calls for caution when considering higher lines. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the current attacking output of both sides clearly supports a scenario with at least two goals.

Eibar have started matches more strongly in their last five outings: they were leading at half-time in 60% of cases, scored an average of 1.8 goals before the break, and collected 2.0 points per match in that period. Valladolid were ahead at half-time in only 40% of matches, while they went into the break trailing in as many as 40%, which provides a clear basis for the scenario of the home side holding the advantage after 45 minutes. After the interval, the balance shifts: the visitors averaged 1.4 goals, won the second half in 60% of their last five matches, and collected 2.0 points per game during that period. Eibar scored just 0.2 goals per match after the break and failed to score in 80% of those fixtures, increasing the likelihood of a Valladolid turnaround. The visitors also won 60% of their last five matches, compared with Eibar’s 40% win rate, so the most likely single outcome is a home lead at half-time followed by a Valladolid win at the final whistle: HT/FT 1/2.