SD Eibar vs SD Huesca: match statistics

Eibar is the favorite: at home they win 67% of matches, score on average 1.72 goals per game and have average xG 1.71, while Huesca win only 12% of away matches, score 0.82 goals on average and have xG 1.03. The hosts have the superior defense — they concede only 0.67 goals at home and kept 50% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 1.88 goals away and have shipped 11 goals in the last 5 matches. Form confirms Eibar’s advantage: in the last 5 matches the hosts recorded 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 points per game, while Huesca did not win in that period (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) averaging 0.4 points per game. In attack Eibar average 5.5 shots on target and 14.56 shots per game at home versus Huesca’s 2.59 shots on target and 9.59 shots away, with a conversion rate of 12% vs 9%. Additionally, Huesca failed to score in 41% of away games, while Eibar failed to score in only 17% of home matches, which increases the probability of a home win.

Seasonal indicators show BTTS at 67% for Eibar and 47% for Huesca, with a league average of 55%, which at first glance slightly favors the "yes" scenario. However, the last 5 matches contradict this trend: Eibar has BTTS only 20% and has conceded a total of 1 goal (0.2 per match), while Huesca has BTTS 100% and has conceded 11 goals (2.2 per match) and scored 6 goals (1.2 per match). xG and activity comparison shows Eibar allows 1.35 xG at home, and Huesca generates 1.03 xG away; the hosts average 12.22 shots and 3.61 on target versus Huesca's 9.59 and 2.59, suggesting game control by Eibar. Additionally Eibar scored 8 and conceded only 1 in their last 5 matches, whereas Huesca's recent record is 6–11 over the last 5, which gives a realistic chance that the hosts will dictate the outcome. Considering Eibar's dominant defensive trend in the last 5 matches (1 conceded) and Huesca's low season goals average (0.82), I assign a higher probability to BTTS = 'No' at 65% versus 35% for 'Yes'.

I expect 1.47 goals for SD Eibar and 1.19 for SD Huesca (total 2.66), calculated as the average of the home attack xG (1.37) and the away conceded xG (1.56), and vice versa (1.03 and 1.35). With lambda=2.66 the Poisson distribution yields ~75% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~50% chance of Over 2.5 and ~28% chance of Over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal Over1.5 rates (Eibar 78%, Huesca 65%) and Over2.5 (39%/47%). Additionally, Eibar scores 1.17 goals on average this season while Huesca concedes 1.88; in the last 5 matches the home side scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) whereas the visitors conceded 11 (2.2 per match), increasing the likelihood of goals. Greater Eibar activity (12.22 shots and 3.61 on target vs 9.59 and 2.59 for Huesca) and 67% BTTS for the home team confirm an edge for goal markets, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Eibar holds a clear seasonal advantage: they average 1.17 goals per game versus Huesca’s 0.82, collect 1.39 points per game compared to the visitors’ 0.47, and have an xG of 1.37 against 1.03. They also average 12.22 shots (3.61 on target) versus Huesca’s 9.59 (2.59 on target). Form suggests an edge at the break — in their last five matches Eibar led at the break in 80% of cases (4 of 5), averaging 1.2 goals at half-time and conceding 0.2, whereas Huesca led at the break in only 20% (1 of 5) with 0.8 goals at half-time and 1.2 conceded. Eibar generally control the second half as well: they earn an average of 1.44 points after the break versus Huesca’s 0.59, have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 4 for the opponent, while Huesca concedes an average of 1.0 goal in the second half, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining a lead. Considering the xG advantage, superior offensive metrics (12.22 vs 9.59), Eibar’s form of 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 (80% wins), and Huesca’s lack of wins in their last 5 (0%), the most likely outcome is the home side leading at half-time and winning full-time. I therefore recommend HT/FT 1/1.