SD Huesca vs Deportivo La Coruña: match statistics

Deportivo La Coruña are clear favorites: they sit 3rd in the table (17 wins, 9 draws, 8 losses), while SD Huesca occupy 20th with a 8-8-18 record and 34 goals scored across the season, compared to Deportivo’s 52 goals. The form gap is significant – Huesca have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5, averaging just 0.2 points per match, whereas Deportivo have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, averaging 2.2 points per match. In attack the visitors are more efficient: Deportivo average 1.71 goals away with 4.29 shots on target and a conversion rate of 13%, while Huesca at home average 1.18 goals, 3.71 SoT and a 9% conversion; additionally Huesca fail to score in 12% of home matches, while Deportivo fail to score in 18% of away trips. Defensively both teams concede on average 1.18 goals per match in their respective conditions (Huesca at home, Deportivo away), but seasonally Huesca have conceded 52 goals versus 37 for Deportivo, and average xG against is 1.56 for the visitors compared to 1.34 against Huesca, which shows that despite allowing quality chances the visitors have a better overall balance. Taking into account table position (3 vs 20), form (2.2 vs 0.2 pts per game) and superior shot efficiency and goals scored (52 vs 34), I recommend a Deportivo victory.

Prediction: I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 76% vs 24% No. Basis: seasonal metrics — Huesca has BTTS at 47% and scores 1.35 goals while conceding 1.00, Deportivo has BTTS 65% and scores 1.71 while conceding 1.18. In the last 5 matches Huesca shows BTTS in 100% and concedes on average 3.0 goals (15 in 5 matches), whereas Deportivo has BTTS 80% and concedes 0.8 goals (4 in 5) with both teams scoring 8 goals each. Additionally xG and shot metrics support a both-teams-to-score scenario: xG 1.47 vs 1.40 and xG against 1.24 vs 1.56, along with equal 4.29 shots on target per match and a higher conversion 13% (Deportivo) vs 10% (Huesca) indicate a realistic chance of goals from both sides. Considering a 55% BTTS rate in the league and Huesca’s pronounced vulnerability to conceding in the last 5 matches, the 'Yes' scenario is the strongest.

I calculated expected goals by averaging attack strength and opponent vulnerability: Huesca attack xG 1.47 and goals conceded by Deportivo 1.56 yield ~1.52 for the home side, while Deportivo attack xG 1.40 and goals conceded by Huesca 1.24 yield ~1.32; total = 2.84 goals. Seasonally both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Huesca 76% and Deportivo 88% (average 82%), which strongly supports Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line the seasonal values are 47% (Huesca) and 53% (Deportivo), but a Poisson distribution with λ=2.84 gives ~54% chance of 3+ goals, so Over 2.5 is moderately likely. The 3.5 line looks weaker: seasonal overs 18% and 29% (average 24%), while Poisson gives ~32% for 4+ goals, so Over 3.5 is less reliable. Additionally Huesca have conceded 52 goals this season while Deportivo scored 52, which increases the goal risk and justifies Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

At half-time the favorites are the hosts: SD Huesca led at the break in 47% of matches and scores an average of 0.88 goals in the first half versus 0.53 for Deportivo, while conceding only 0.35 goals to the break. After the interval the statistical advantage lies with the visitors: Deportivo averages 1.18 goals in second halves (overall AVG_2hg_away 1.71) and wins 65% of second halves, whereas Huesca scores only 0.47 goals in the second half. Recent form over the last 5 matches strongly favors the visitors — Huesca’s last 5 record is 'llldl' with 0.2 pts/match, and Deportivo 'wwdwd' with 2.2 pts/match. Additionally, the timing distribution of goals shows Deportivo as a threat late on: the visitors have scored 12 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 4 for Huesca, and Huesca failed to score in minutes 46–60; therefore the most likely scenario is Huesca leading at the break and Deportivo winning the match (HT/FT 1/2).