Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire: match statistics

Chicago Fire come into this game in excellent form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning 4 and drawing 1, while Seattle have managed just 4 points and suffered three defeats. During this period, the visitors scored 10 goals and conceded 5, whereas the hosts netted 6 and allowed their opponents to score 7. Over the course of the season, Chicago have a clearly superior record, with 11 wins and 37 goals compared with Seattle’s 7 victories and 22 goals. Away from home, Fire average 1.70 goals per match and convert 16% of their shots, while the Sounders’ home defence concedes as many as 1.78 goals per game. Seattle do create more high-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.74 compared with Chicago’s 1.30 away from home, but their poor current form and just 11% of home matches without conceding point towards the visitors.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 60% of Seattle’s matches and as many as 80% of Chicago’s, compared with the league average of 63%. Chicago averages 1.7 goals per match and scored 2.0 goals per game across its last five outings, while Seattle allowed opponents an xG of 1.97 and conceded an average of 1.4 goals during that period. The hosts have failed to score in none of their matches this season, and their average of 2.0 goals scored and xG of 1.76 align well with Chicago’s defence, which concedes 1.5 goals on average and keeps a clean sheet in only 20% of matches. Seattle does have a 40% clean-sheet rate across the season, but Chicago recorded BTTS in 100% of its last five matches, significantly reducing the likelihood of a scenario in which one team fails to score. BTTS - Yes is therefore the most probable outcome, although Seattle’s relatively solid defence over the course of the season remains a risk.

Seattle score an average of 2.0 goals at home, while Chicago concede 1.5 goals away from home, with the hosts generating an average of 1.76 xG compared to the 1.60 xG allowed by their opponents. Chicago are in excellent attacking form: they have scored 2.0 goals per game across their last five matches, while the Over 2.5 goals line was cleared in 60% and 80% of their games, respectively. At least two goals were scored in 80% of Seattle’s matches and 90% of Chicago’s, while the league average stands at a high 3.19 goals. The visitors have scored in 90% of their matches, while Seattle have allowed as much as 1.97 xG per game over their last five fixtures, increasing the likelihood of a Chicago goal. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as it combines the high consistency of both attacks with clearly favorable goal-scoring and chance-quality metrics.

Chicago are showing significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, remain unbeaten, and have averaged 2.0 goals scored, while Seattle have lost 3 of their 5 games and scored just 1.2 goals per match. The visitors led at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, and over the entire period analysed they were ahead at half-time in 50% of matches, compared with 40% for Seattle. Their defence is currently stable before the interval, conceding just 0.2 goals on average in the first half over their last five matches, identical to the hosts’ figure, which increases the likelihood of holding onto any potential lead. Seattle have better seasonal home metrics, including a 70% win rate and an xG of 1.76, but their current form and average of 1.2 goals conceded after the break suggest that Chicago could take the lead and see the game out.