Segesta Sisak vs Kustošija: match statistics

Segesta Sisak are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring as many as 27 goals in the process, while Kustošija have scored 8 goals and recorded just one victory. At home, the hosts average 3 goals per match and produce 16 shots, including 6 on target, whereas away from home the visitors average only 1 goal from 10 shots and 4 efforts on target. Segesta’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with their average home xG standing at 1.84 compared with Kustošija’s 1.31 away from home. However, the hosts concede an average of 1 goal and are yet to keep a clean sheet at home, meaning the visitors could pose a threat. Kustošija have nevertheless drawn all of their away matches so far, while their lower conversion rate—10% compared with Segesta’s 19%—supports a home win.

The strongest signal points to both teams scoring: BTTS occurred in 60% of Segesta Sisak’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Kustošija’s, compared with a league average of 67%. During this period, Segesta averaged 5.4 goals per match, while Kustošija averaged 1.6, with both defences conceding 1.2 and 1.4 goals to their opponents respectively. Their attacking potential is also supported by the average xG figures from the last five matches: 1.65 for the home side and 1.36 for the visitors. Kustošija has averaged 1.31 xG across the competition and records an average of 4 shots on target per match, so they should have a realistic chance of exploiting the hosts’ defensive vulnerability. Although some of Segesta’s season-long data is very limited, the recent form of both teams clearly increases the probability of a scenario with a goal on each side.

Segesta Sisak scored an average of as many as 5.4 goals in their last five matches while conceding 1.2, resulting in a very high average goal total in their games. During this period, Kustošija scored 1.6 goals per match and conceded 1.4, while both teams scored in 80% of their last five appearances. The chance-quality metrics also suggest an open game: the hosts’ average xG is 1.65, while the visitors’ stands at 1.36. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Segesta’s last five matches and in 40% of Kustošija’s games, but the small sample size and more moderate xG figures point towards the safer Over 1.5 goals. The projected 3.35 goals gives a clear edge to at least two goals in the match overall.

The strongest scenario is for Segesta Sisak to lead at the break and win the match, as the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 fixtures, compared with just 1 for Kustošija. Segesta were ahead at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals before the break and conceding just 0.4. Kustošija were trailing at half-time in 50% of their last five appearances, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded during that period. After the break, the hosts remain highly dangerous, averaging 3.2 goals scored per game across their last five matches, compared with 0.75 for the visitors. The limited seasonal sample should be taken into account, but Segesta’s current 80% win rate versus Kustošija’s 20% clearly supports the 1/1 outcome.