Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya: match statistics

The favorites are the visitors — Persebaya Surabaya — who sit 6th in the table versus Semen Padang in 17th, and have 49 goals scored this season compared to the hosts' 22. The form gap is stark: in the last 5 matches Persebaya scored 11 goals, won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 (approximately 2 points per match), while Semen have failed to score in their previous five games, lost all of them and have 0 points in that period. Semen generate more shots at home (avg. 12.38 shots and 4.06 on target) and have a higher home xG (1.44) than the visitors’ away xG (1.21), but their conversion is only 6%, yielding 0.75 goals per game; Persebaya have a 12% conversion and 1.25 goals per away match. Defensively the visitors also prevail: Persebaya concede 1.06 goals on average away versus Semen’s 1.5 conceded at home, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have let in just 2 goals compared to the hosts’ 10 conceded. Considering league position, the 49–22 goal advantage on the season, the 11–0 recent form comparison and superior conversion rate of 12% vs 6%, I predict a Persebaya win; a draw is possible if the hosts remain inefficient, but I assess Semen’s chances of winning as low.

I assess 'No' (No Goal) as more likely — 60% vs 40% for 'BTTS - Yes'. Key factor is current form: Semen Padang have failed to score in their last 5 matches (0 goals) and conceded 10, while Persebaya over the same period have 11 scored and only 2 conceded. Despite the hosts' seasonal BTTS rate of 63% with an average goals 1.81 and xG 1.74, the hosts' last 5 matches show low attacking efficiency — their recent xG is 1.12 with zero goals scored. Persebaya have a higher clean sheet rate (44% vs 31% for Semen Padang) and conceded just 0.4 goals on average in their last 5, increasing the likelihood that Semen Padang will remain goalless. Therefore the short-term poor form of the hosts outweighs the seasonal 63% BTTS indicator, so I pick BTTS 'No'.

The model based on xG and current form projects 1.54 expected goals for Semen Padang and 1.43 for Persebaya, totalling 2.97 goals. Calculations use home xG 1.74 and xG conceded to visitors 1.71 (averaging ~1.72 for the home side) and away xG 1.21 and xG conceded to home sides 1.41 (averaging ~1.31 for the away side); I also factored in the last 5 matches, where Semen Padang scored 0 goals and Persebaya 11. Seasonal percentages support the direction: Semen Padang have 75% of matches over 1.5, Persebaya 69%, and the league averages 2.74 goals per match, reinforcing the over 1.5 signal. For the 2.5 line the signal is moderate (Semen Padang 63% of matches over 2.5 vs 38% for Persebaya) and my estimate gives roughly a 57% probability for Over 2.5. Therefore the strongest and most reliable bet from this data is Over 1.5.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw — Semen Padang were level at the break in 50% of their matches and Persebaya in 63%, giving an average of about a 56% chance of a draw at 45 minutes. Despite this, the hosts are more likely to win by full-time: Semen have a higher xG of 1.74 versus 1.21 and score on average 1.81 goals per match compared to the visitors’ 1.25, and they record 5.44 shots on target against Persebaya’s 3.31, which increases the probability of a turnaround in Semen’s favour after the break. The second half is the main scoring period — 88% of the hosts’ matches had at least 0.5 goals after the break, while for the visitors this figure is 75%, so outcomes often settle after 45 minutes. However, one must account for Semen’s very poor form (last 5 matches: LLLLL) and the fact that in those five games Semen conceded on average 1.4 goals in the first half, which limits their likelihood of leading at the break. Taking this together I select X/1 (draw at half-time, home win at full-time) as the strongest scenario and assign it the highest probability (23%), with 1/1 remaining the second most likely result (20%).