Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia: match statistics

CSKA 1948 Sofia sit 3rd and remain unbeaten in their five league matches so far, recording 4 wins and 1 draw, while Septemvri Sofia have a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. The visitors have scored 13 goals, including 11 in their last five matches, whereas the hosts have managed just 3 goals and conceded 9 during the same period. Away from home, CSKA 1948 create higher-quality chances, averaging 1.90 xG and 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with Septemvri’s 1.53 xG and 4 shots on target at home. The hosts score just 0.5 goals per home game and have failed to find the net in 50% of those fixtures, while the visitors average 2.5 goals away from home and have not been held scoreless in any match. CSKA 1948’s defence is not flawless, conceding an average of 1.5 goals away from home, but their clear advantage in attacking strength and current form makes an away win the most likely outcome.

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 100% in the current season data, and neither has kept a clean sheet, clearly favoring goals at both ends. CSKA 1948 average 2.5 goals and 7.5 shots on target per match, while Septemvri concede an average of 1.8 goals across their last five fixtures. However, the hosts have been less convincing offensively in their recent run, averaging just 0.6 goals with BTTS landing in 40% of matches, so the risk of them failing to score remains significant. Their xG over the last five matches is nevertheless 1.23, while opponents allow an average xG of 2.05, giving Septemvri a realistic chance of finding the net. The BTTS - Yes pick is stronger than the league average of 56%, but the hosts’ weaker recent finishing limits confidence in the prediction.

Both teams have gone over 1.5 goals in 100% of their league matches so far, with each side scoring and conceding at least one goal in every such game. CSKA 1948 are particularly strong offensively: they create chances worth an average of 1.90 xG, record 13.5 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with Septemvri’s 9.0 shots. The hosts have recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game, while the visitors score 2.2, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. Even with Septemvri’s recent dip in finishing efficiency, their opponents have allowed 2.05 xG across their last five matches, making Over 1.5 the market best supported by the data.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA 1948 win after the match, as the visitors have drawn the first half in all of their last five matches, while Septemvri were behind at the break in 60% of their games during this period. Current form clearly favors the away side: CSKA 1948 have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five appearances, compared with Septemvri’s averages of just 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded. The visitors’ advantage is even more evident after the break, when they score an average of 1.6 goals, whereas Septemvri score only 0.4, while the hosts concede 1.0 goal per match in this period. CSKA 1948 also create more chances, averaging 13.5 shots and 7.5 shots on target, compared with Septemvri’s 9.0 shots and 4.33 shots on target. Although the hosts have recorded a perfect winning record in a very small sample of home matches, a run of 1 win and 3 defeats in their last five games reduces the credibility of the 1/1 outcome.