Sevilla FC vs Atlético Madrid: match statistics

Sevilla come into this match having won 4 of their last 5 games and scoring 9 goals during that spell, while Atlético have won only 2 of their last 5. At home, the hosts average 2 goals per game, create chances worth 1.43 xG and register an average of 13 shots, 4 of which are on target. Their home defence limits opponents to just 0.78 xG, although they concede an average of one goal per match, giving the visitors a realistic chance of scoring. Atlético have conceded as many as 8 goals in their last five appearances, compared with Sevilla’s 5, while a run of two defeats followed by their most recent draw points to a less stable trend. Sevilla’s edge in current form, finishing and the quality of chances created supports a home win, although there remains a genuine risk of a closely contested match.

The strongest signal in favor of goals from both sides comes from the teams’ form over their last 5 matches, in which both Sevilla and Atlético recorded BTTS in 80% of games. Sevilla averaged 1.8 goals during this period, while Atlético averaged 1.6, with the visitors conceding as many as 1.6 goals per match. At home, the hosts score an average of 2.0 goals and produce an xG of 1.88, giving them clear grounds to breach Atlético’s defence. Atlético have recently generated an xG of 1.38, while Sevilla allow opponents an xG of 1.22 and have kept a clean sheet in only 50% of their home matches. Although the league-wide BTTS average stands at 50%, the latest offensive and defensive data from both teams clearly increase the likelihood of a scenario in which each team scores.

In their last five matches, Sevilla averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Atlético averaged 1.6, with both teams recording games featuring Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases. During the same period, the two sides conceded 1.0 and 1.6 goals per match, respectively, while both teams scored in 80% of their fixtures. The xG figures are more moderate but still support an open-game scenario: Atlético created chances worth 1.38 xG per match, while Sevilla allowed opponents 1.22 xG. At home, Sevilla also averages 17 shots, including 5 on target, and scores 2.0 goals per match. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of both teams’ current attacking form and recent results clearly increases the likelihood of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sevilla win at full-time (X/1). In their two available home matches, Sevilla were level at the break in 100% of cases, scoring and conceding no goals before half-time, while Atlético were drawing after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches. After the break, the hosts are clearly more dangerous: across their last five matches, they averaged 1.0 goals scored, whereas Atlético conceded as many as 1.4 goals during this phase. The full-time results trend also favours Sevilla, who won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 goals scored, compared with Atlético’s 2 defeats and 1.6 goals conceded per match. Sevilla’s own data additionally indicate an average of 2.0 goals scored after half-time, further strengthening the likelihood of a turnaround in the hosts’ favour after an evenly balanced start.