Sevilla FC vs Valencia CF: match statistics

Sevilla sit 7th, while Valencia are bottom of the table. Their away record after four matches stands at 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with a 1:9 goal difference. The hosts have won 2 of their 4 league matches and collected 7 points in their last five games, whereas Valencia have managed just 1 point over the same period, losing 4 times. At home, Sevilla create more chances, averaging 16.5 shots and an xG of 1.74, compared with Valencia’s 12 shots and 1.47 xG away from home. The visitors’ defensive weakness is crucial: they concede an average of 3 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheets. Sevilla also allow opponents opportunities, conceding 2 goals per home game, so Valencia may find the net. However, the hosts’ superior form and the quality of chances they create point to a Sevilla win.

The stronger signal points to a scenario in which at least one team fails to score, primarily due to Valencia’s very poor current finishing: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged just 0.4 goals and scored 2 goals in total. Sevilla, during the same period, averaged 1.6 goals per match, while Valencia conceded as many as 2.2 goals, giving the hosts clear grounds to decide the match on their own. Valencia have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, but Sevilla have done so in 33% of their appearances, increasing the likelihood of a 1:0 or 2:0 result. The latest xG data do not rule out a goal for the visitors, as Valencia created an average of 1.15 xG; however, Sevilla allowed opponents 1.35 xG, a level that does not indicate an unequivocally high BTTS probability. Although Sevilla recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, Valencia’s low attacking output and just 40% BTTS over the same period shift the prediction towards BTTS - No.

Sevilla have averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last five matches, while Valencia have conceded as many as 2.2 per game over the same period, clearly supporting at least one goal for the hosts. At the same time, Valencia have scored just 0.4 goals per game in their last five appearances, despite recording an average xG of 1.15, so I estimate their attacking potential at around one goal. Sevilla’s average xG in recent matches stands at 1.22, compared with 1.53 xG conceded by Valencia, leading to a projected total of 2.60 goals. The teams’ recent results have often exceeded 2.5 goals — 80% of Sevilla’s matches and 60% of Valencia’s — but the 3.5 line requires four goals and remains clearly above the expected total. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the data supports a result in the range of two or three goals, without equally strong indications of a very high-scoring game.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sevilla win at full-time, as the hosts have averaged 1.6 goals in their last five matches, while Valencia have conceded as many as 2.2 per game. The first half is expected to be cautious: both teams have recently scored just 0.4 goals on average before the break, with an identical average of 1.2 total goals in the opening half. After the interval, Sevilla’s advantage increases significantly, as they average 1.2 goals in the second half, whereas Valencia have failed to score in that period and have conceded 1.4 goals on average. Valencia have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and have not won any, while Sevilla have won 2 of their last 5, further strengthening the HT/FT X/1 scenario, with the hosts taking control in the closing stages.