Shaanxi Union vs Changchun Yatai: match statistics

Shaanxi Union have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 57% of their matches, score an average of 1.57 goals and concede just 0.43 per game. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, as demonstrated by an average xG of 1.77 compared with Changchun Yatai’s 1.14 away from home, while they also register 15.71 shots per match against 8.63 for their opponents. The visitors’ defensive record could prove decisive, as they concede an average of 1.75 goals away from home, have lost 50% of their matches and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Changchun Yatai are nevertheless effective on the road, scoring an average of 1.75 goals and failing to score in just 13% of matches, so a closely contested game cannot be ruled out. Despite Shaanxi Union’s weaker overall record in their last five matches, their superiority in game control, chance creation and defensive stability points to a narrow home win.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are very high: Shaanxi Union has seen both teams score in 78% of their matches, while Changchun Yatai has recorded BTTS in as many as 88%, well above the league average of 55%. The hosts concede an average of 2.00 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.75, and Changchun Yatai have kept no clean sheets this season. In their last five appearances, the visitors recorded BTTS in 100% of matches and conceded 2.2 goals per game, while Shaanxi Union averaged 1.2 goals scored. The hosts' attack has recently created chances worth 1.35 xG, and their 4.11 shots on target per match should be enough to trouble a visiting defence allowing an average of 1.46 xG across its last five matches. Shaanxi Union's weaker BTTS rate over their last five games, at 40%, does not outweigh the strong signal for goals at both ends, especially given Changchun Yatai's consistent scoring rate of 1.8 goals.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least 2 goals: this occurred in 89% of Shaanxi Union’s games and 88% of Changchun Yatai’s matches. The hosts concede an average of 2.00 goals per game, while the visitors score 1.75, clearly strengthening the case for goals at both ends. In their last five appearances, Changchun Yatai scored 9 and conceded 11 goals, with the 2.5-goal line surpassed in 100% of those matches. The combined xG estimates for both teams stand at approximately 2.52, while their current defensive performances raise the projection to 2.90 goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the low line is supported by both seasonal frequency and the defensive weaknesses of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Changchun Yatai victory at full-time, as draws after 45 minutes occurred in 44% of the hosts’ matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches. In their last five matches, Yatai led at the break in 40% of cases, but lost just as often, suggesting a variable yet open start. After half-time, the visitors average 0.88 goals scored and concede only 0.75, while Shaanxi Union’s figures for this period stand at 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded. Current form also favours the visitors: they have taken 1.4 points per match over their last five outings, compared with 0.8 for the hosts, while Shaanxi lost 60% of those matches. The hosts register more shots on target, 4.11 compared with 3.25, but Yatai are more clinical, with a 20% conversion rate versus 13% for their opponents, strengthening the prospect of a post-half-time turnaround.