Shahrdari Noshahr vs Navad Urmia: match statistics

The favorite is Shahrdari Noshahr: at home they have an average xG of 1.38 and score 0.69 goals per match, while Navad Urmia away have xG 0.86 and score only 0.36 goals per match. Defensively the hosts are also superior — at home they concede 0.69 goals per match and record clean sheets in 46% of games, whereas the visitors concede 1.29 goals on average away and have only 14% clean sheets. The difference in chance quality is clear: the hosts average 9.29 shots and 4.29 on target per home match (conversion 9%), while Navad averages 6.75 shots and 2.25 on target away (conversion 4%). Risk factors include poor form for both teams over the last 5 matches — the hosts have not won in their last 5 (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 0.6 points per match) and conceded 4 goals, while the visitors have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 points per match) and conceded 10 goals in that period. Considering the season-long home advantage in xG, the number and quality of shots and better defense, I assign a 65% probability to a home win, 20% to a draw and 15% to an away win.

I assess a 75% probability for No BTTS and 25% for BTTS — the “no” scenario is stronger. Both teams have low goals-per-game: home 0.77, away 0.36 (total 1.13), below the league average 1.51, and each has scored 15 goals this season. BTTS occurred in only 38% of home matches and 29% of away matches versus a league average of 28%; in the last 5 matches BTTS rate is 20% for the home side and 0% for the away side — a clear signal for No Goal. The home team has kept a clean sheet in 46% of games compared to 14% for the visitors, while the away team conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches (10 goals in 5) and scored just 0.2 goals per game. Additionally, the away team averages 2.25 shots on target and 6.75 shots per game with a low conversion rate of 4%, and the home side shows 0.0 average shots in the data, all supporting the No BTTS (No Goal) selection.

Shahrdari scores on average 0.77 and concedes 0.92, Navad scores 0.36 and concedes 1.29; based on this I estimate 1.03 xG for the home side and 0.64 for the away side, total 1.67. Season metrics corroborate a low total: Over 2.5 occurred in only 15% of Shahrdari’s matches and 21% of Navad’s, while Over 1.5 is 54% and 50% respectively; the league averages 1.51 goals per match. Applying a Poisson distribution with λ=1.67 yields P(Over 1.5)≈50%, P(Over 2.5)≈24% and P(Over 3.5)≈9%, implying ~76% probability for Under 2.5. Additionally, Navad have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 avg) and scored only 1 goal (0.2 avg), indicating weak offensive output and increasing the likelihood of a low total; for these reasons the strongest signal is Under 2.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X), because the home team had a draw at the break in 46% of matches and draw results in 62% of their games overall (46% vs 62%). At half-time the hosts average 0.46 goals while the visitors only 0.08, indicating the away side’s poor first-half efficiency (0.46 vs 0.08). Over the full match the hosts score on average 0.77 goals versus 0.36 for the visitors, and the visitors concede on average 1.29 goals, which favors low-scoring and draw outcomes (0.77, 0.36, 1.29). After the break the hosts perform better in terms of points — averaging 1.23 points versus 0.92 for the visitors — so an alternative signal is a draw at half-time followed by a home turnaround to win (X/1), but the strongest and most consistent signal from the data points to X/X.