Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis: match statistics

Shams Azar Qazvin have a slight edge in terms of current form: they have collected 4 points from their last five matches, thanks to 1 win and 1 draw, while Persepolis have earned 3 points and suffered as many as 4 defeats. Both teams have scored 4 goals during this period, but the hosts have conceded only 6, compared with 9 for the visitors—an average of 1.8 per match. Persepolis’s defence therefore appears significantly less stable, which could prove decisive against a team playing at home. Shams Azar have also lost 3 of their last 5 matches, so the advantage is limited and a draw remains a realistic outcome. Despite the limited seasonal data, the better points record and 3 fewer goals conceded support a narrow home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Shams Azar Qazvin saw both teams score in only 20% of their last 5 matches. During this period, both teams scored just 0.8 goals per match, which limits the chances of each side finding the net. Persepolis conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match and had BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, but their own average of goals scored is also only 0.8. The hosts created just 0.33 xG on average in recent matches, making the outcome in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The most useful data comes from the last five matches, as the full-season statistics in the dataset are incomplete. Shams Azar scored 4 goals during this period, averaging 0.8 per game, while Persepolis also scored just 4, with an average of 0.8 goals. The hosts conceded an average of 1.2 goals, compared with 1.8 for the visitors, raising the projection to approximately 2.2 goals, but still clearly below the 3.5 line. Only 20% of Shams Azar’s recent matches went Over 2.5 goals, and even with Persepolis recording 60% of such games, the combined profile of both teams does not indicate a frequent four-goal scenario. Under 3.5 therefore has the edge, as losing this bet would require a result significantly above the teams’ current attacking output.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Shams Azar win after the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 games, while Persepolis were trailing at half-time in as many as 4 of 5. Shams Azar did not score before the break during this period, but conceded just 0.4 goals in the first halves, which clearly increases the likelihood of a cautious start and a level scoreline. After half-time, the hosts score an average of 0.8 goals, while Persepolis conceded an average of 1.8 goals across their last five matches. The full-time results also marginally favour the hosts: Shams Azar averaged 0.8 points per match and lost 3 of their last 5 games, whereas Persepolis have only 0.6 points and suffered 4 defeats in 5 matches. Both teams scored after half-time in 4 of their last 5 games, so the most likely outcome is that the match will be decided in the second half.