Shanghai Jiading vs Changchun Yatai: match statistics

Changchun Yatai appears to be the favorite: they sit 7th in the table while Shanghai Jiading are 16th and have lost all home matches (100% defeats). The hosts concede an average of 3 goals per home match and have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 fixtures, whereas Changchun concede 1.33 goals on average away and have let in 5 in their last five games. Shanghai create more chances (on average 12.5 shots and 3 on target at home) and have a higher home xG (1.68 vs. 0.91 xG for the visitors away), but their home conversion is only 8% and in 50% of home matches they fail to score. The visitors are significantly more efficient with fewer attempts (6.67 shots and 2 on target away) with a 20% conversion and average 1.33 goals away, and they have earned 1.8 points per match in their last 5 games versus the hosts' 0.8 points, all favouring a Changchun win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% (Shanghai Jiading 67% and Changchun Yatai 67%), which is significantly above the league average of 40% and indicates a higher likelihood of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches BTTS was 40% for Shanghai and 60% for Changchun, so short-term signals are mixed, but the visitors have found the net more often. Shanghai has a higher xG (1.31 vs 0.91) and more on-target shots on average (4.67 vs 2.0), suggesting they will create chances; meanwhile Changchun has a seasonal goals scored average of 1.33 and 0% clean sheets, meaning they regularly concede. In the last 5 matches Shanghai conceded an average of 1.6 goals and Changchun 1.0, which further increases the probability of an exchange of goals. Considering the seasonal 67% for both and the hosts’ xG creation advantage, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% versus 35% for No.

Combining the teams' attack and defense xG yields 1.18 xG for Shanghai Jiading (1.31 xG attack vs 1.04 xG defense of Changchun) and 1.18 xG for Changchun Yatai (0.91 xG attack vs 1.44 xG defense of Shanghai), totaling 2.36 expected goals. Historical data points to a higher scoring outcome: season Over 2.5 is 67% for both teams, and in the last 5 matches Shanghai had Over 2.5 in 80% and Changchun in 60%. Shot volume and conversion rates push goal expectations up — Shanghai averages 9.67 shots with a 14% conversion (~1.35 goals), Changchun 6.67 shots with a 20% conversion (~1.33 goals), combined ≈2.68 goals. Both sides have BTTS at 67% and season Over 1.5 also 67%, while the hosts have 33% clean sheets versus 0% for the visitors, which further increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 (my subjective probability: 75% for Over); I would rate Over 2.5 at about 68% given the 67% season figure and recent form, whereas Over 3.5 looks less likely (≈24%).

At Half-Time I expect a draw: the home side have not led at the break in the dataset (0.0%), and a draw at the break occurred in 100.0% of their matches, with an average of 0.67 goals to the break for each team, i.e. 1.33 goals total. After the break a home victory is more likely, because the home team’s season xG is 1.31 versus 0.91 for the visitors, and the home side average 4.67 shots on target versus 2.0 and 9.67 shots overall versus 6.67, which suggests a clear advantage in chance creation. Additionally the hosts have a better home points average – 2.0 points per match versus 1.0 for the away team – and win 67.0% of home matches versus 33.0% wins for the visitors, supporting the scenario that after a draw at the break they will dominate the second half. However the form over the last 5 matches favors the visitors: the away team won 60.0% of their last five while the hosts won only 20.0%, so I maintain a moderate probability of a full-time draw and an away victory. As a result I select as the strongest signal the Half-Time draw and home win scenario (X/1) and assign it 35% probability.