Shanghai Jiading vs Nanjing City: match statistics

Shanghai Jiading sit 10th, while Nanjing City are 15th; the visitors have lost all of their last 5 matches, conceding 12 goals in the process. The hosts are also in poor form, having won just 1 of their last 5 games and scored only 1 goal, so their advantage is not clear-cut. At home, however, they average 1.42 goals and 3.42 shots on target per match, compared with Nanjing’s away averages of 0.67 goals and 2.42 shots on target. The hosts also have the edge in chance quality: their home xG is 1.32, against the visitors’ away xG of 1.17, and Nanjing have lost 67% of their matches on the road. Although Shanghai concede an average of 1.58 goals at home, Nanjing’s lack of attacking threat away from home—they have failed to score in 33% of such matches—makes a home win the most likely outcome.

Over the season, BTTS - Yes landed in 50% of Shanghai Jiading's matches and 58% of Nanjing City's, but the teams' recent scoring form points to a more cautious prediction. In their last five matches, the hosts averaged just 0.2 goals and did not record BTTS - Yes once, while the visitors averaged 0.4 goals, with BTTS - Yes in 40% of their matches. Nanjing conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match during this period, so a Shanghai goal is possible; however, the visitors average just 2.42 shots on target compared with the hosts' 3.33. Despite Nanjing's season xG of 1.17, their poor finishing makes BTTS - No—meaning at least one team fails to score—slightly more likely.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 83% of Shanghai Jiading matches and 92% of Nanjing City matches. Both teams have scored modestly this season—averaging 1.00 goals for the hosts and 0.67 for the visitors—although xG figures of 1.39 and 1.17, respectively, suggest some potential for improvement. However, Shanghai have managed just 0.2 goals per game across their last five matches, while Nanjing have scored 0.4, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring game. One risk to this prediction is the visitors’ defence, which conceded an average of 2.4 goals over the same period. However, the hosts have scored more than two goals in only 8% of their matches this season. The estimated total of 2.10 goals supports the 3.5 line more strongly than the 2.5 line, which was exceeded in 42% of the hosts’ matches and 33% of the visitors’ matches.

A draw at half-time followed by a Shanghai Jiading win at full-time looks the most likely outcome. The hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and failed to score before half-time in any of them, making an early lead difficult to regard as a reliable scenario. However, Nanjing City have lost all of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game compared with Shanghai’s 1.0. The visitors have recently conceded an average of 1.4 goals after the break, giving the hosts a chance to settle the match in the second half. Shanghai also have the edge in season-long average xG, at 1.39 versus 1.17, although the hosts’ poor finishing in recent matches limits confidence in this pick.