Shanghai Jiading vs Yanbian Longding: match statistics

Yanbian Longding sit 3rd, while Shanghai Jiading are sixth, with the visitors losing just 3 of their 19 league matches compared with the hosts’ 6 defeats in 18 games. Yanbian’s away defence is clearly more solid, conceding an average of 0.88 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of games, compared with Shanghai’s 1.67 goals conceded and 22% clean-sheet rate at home. However, the hosts create more chances at their own ground, averaging 10.78 shots and generating an xG of 1.42, while Yanbian’s away xG stands at just 0.84. The visitors are more clinical when presented with chances, boasting a 20% conversion rate compared with 13%, but they fail to score in as many as 50% of away matches. Both teams have been similarly consistent over their last five games, with Shanghai recording 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, while Yanbian have registered 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Therefore, a closely contested draw is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Yanbian Longding kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while Shanghai Jiading failed to score in 27% of games. The visitors have a clearly lower creative output: their average xG is only 0.84, compared with 1.40 for the hosts, while their shots on target average 2.88 versus 4.45. Yanbian’s seasonal BTTS rate is just 25%, significantly below Shanghai’s 64% and the league average of 55%, suggesting frequent matches in which only one side finds the net. The last five appearances provide slightly more arguments in favour of both teams scoring, as BTTS occurred in 40% and 60% of matches respectively, but Yanbian conceded only 0.8 goals per game during this period. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that at least one team will fail to score.

The profile of both teams points to a game with a moderate number of goals: Shanghai Jiading concede an average of 0.82 goals, while Yanbian Longding concede 0.88 goals per match. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 73% of the hosts’ matches and as many as 87% of the visitors’ games, while Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 45% and 38% of their matches, respectively. In their last five appearances, the teams scored an average of 1.0 and 1.2 goals per match, respectively, while Yanbian conceded just 0.8 goals per game during this period. The hosts should create more chances, as they average 11.73 shots compared with their opponents’ 6.88, but projected totals of 1.28 goals for Shanghai and 1.02 for Yanbian add up to just 2.30 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is best supported by both solid defensive performances and the clearly low historical frequency of four-goal games.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Yanbian were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches, while Shanghai recorded a half-time draw in as many as 80% of their last five games. The first halves of both teams are typically low-scoring: the home side averages 0.55 goals scored during this period, while the visitors concede just 0.25. After the break, the advantage should shift to Shanghai, who average 0.91 goals in the second half, whereas Yanbian concede 0.63. The home side also have a clearly superior creative profile over the full match, with an xG of 1.40 compared with their opponents’ 0.84, as well as an average of 4.45 shots on target versus 2.88 for the visitors. The X/1 scenario is further supported by Shanghai’s very strong defensive record after half-time, conceding an average of just 0.27 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 73% of matches during this period.