Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.: match statistics

St Patrick's Athl. sit 2nd, while Shelbourne are fifth, and the visitors’ overall season record stands at 12 wins and just 6 defeats, compared with the hosts’ 8 wins and 7 losses. The visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, whereas Shelbourne have won only once and suffered 2 defeats during that period. St Patrick's have a clearly stronger defence: they have conceded 22 goals this season, compared with Shelbourne’s 36, and have allowed just 4 goals in their last five matches, versus 8 conceded by their opponents. At home, the hosts average 1.58 xG and score 1.38 goals per match, but concede as many as 1.69 goals, while the visitors’ xG of 1.67 gives them a strong case to decide the outcome. However, St Patrick's’ high away draw rate of 42% increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

Seasonal BTTS figures are moderate and very similar, standing at 43% for Shelbourne and 42% for St Patrick's Athl., but recent form clearly increases the chances of both teams scoring. In four of each team's last five matches, both sides found the net, which amounts to 80% in both cases. During this period, Shelbourne averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded 1.6, while St Patrick's Athl. scored 1.6 goals per match and conceded just 0.8. The hosts create plenty of chances, with an average xG of 2.18 and 6.86 shots on target, while the visitors generated as much as 2.06 xG across their last five matches, which should be enough to break through the opposition's defence. However, the BTTS - Yes pick is only moderately strong, as Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 43% of matches, while St Patrick's Athl. fail to score in 50% of away games.

Shelbourne score an average of 2.07 goals at home and create chances worth 2.18 xG, while St Patrick's concede an average of 1.17 goals away from home. In their last five matches, both teams recorded a high percentage of games in which both sides scored—80% each—while Shelbourne conceded 1.6 goals per match during this period. The Over 1.5 line was covered in 71% of the hosts’ matches and 75% of the visitors’ appearances, which is a significantly stronger signal than the overall record for Over 2.5 goals. However, the visitors remain less effective away from home, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and failing to score in 50% of such matches, making Over 2.5 a riskier option. The projected total of 2.60 goals indicates that Over 1.5 goals offers the safest edge.

Shelbourne hold a clear advantage across the season: they average 2.07 goals per match and concede just 0.57, while St Patrick's score 1.00 goal away from home and lose 33% of their away fixtures. The hosts have led at the break in 43% of matches, compared with just 25% for the visitors, and Shelbourne average 0.86 goals scored before half-time while conceding only 0.43. Their advantage should be maintained after the interval, as the hosts average 1.21 goals in the second half and keep a clean sheet in 86% of second halves, while their opponents score just 0.50 goals during that period. St Patrick's recent form is stronger, with 8 points from five matches compared with Shelbourne's 5, but the full-season profile and the hosts' very strong defence provide the strongest support for the Shelbourne lead-and-win HT/FT outcome, 1/1.