Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Kara Gostar: match statistics

Shenavarsazi Qeshm have the better chance of winning: they sit 9th in the table, while Kara Gostar are 15th, and they have scored 6 goals in their last five matches compared with their opponents' 2. Both teams have conceded 3 goals over that period, so the main difference is attacking efficiency. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five games, although four ended in draws; the visitors have recorded three draws and one defeat in the same period. Shenavarsazi's only home match so far ended 2-2, while Kara Gostar lost their away game 0-2 without scoring. The small sample size calls for caution, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but the teams' scoring records so far favour the hosts.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring comes from Kara Gostar’s away statistics: they average 0 goals scored and have failed to score in 100% of such matches. Shenavarsazi Qeshm concede an average of 0.5 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. In their last five matches, Kara Gostar have scored just 2 goals, an average of 0.4 per game, while BTTS - Yes has landed in 20% of their matches, compared with 40% of the home side’s matches. Although the hosts may capitalise on the fact that the visitors concede an average of 2 goals away from home, both sides scoring would also require a goal from Kara Gostar’s low-scoring attack. With the league-wide BTTS rate at 28%, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

In their last 5 matches, the hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 0.6, while the visitors scored just 0.4 goals and also conceded 0.6. This gives an average of 1.8 total goals in Shenavarsazi Qeshm matches and 1.0 in Kara Gostar matches, compared with a league average of 1.58. Over the same period, Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of the hosts’ matches and in none of the visitors’ 5 matches, reinforcing the low-scoring outlook. The 1.60-goal projection makes Under 3.5 goals the safest pick, although the forecast should be treated with caution due to the limited number of matches.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: in their last five matches, the home side were level at the break three times, while the visitors were level four times. Kara Gostar failed to score in the first half in four of those five matches, further reducing the likelihood of them taking the lead. The form of both teams also points towards a draw after 90 minutes: Shenavarsazi Qeshm have drawn four of their last five matches, and Kara Gostar three of five. The home side have the edge in average goals over this period, with 1.2 compared to 0.4, so a draw at half-time followed by a home win remains a credible alternative. However, with just 1.58 goals per match on average in the league and the second half ending level in four of the home side’s last five matches, the X/X scenario has the strongest statistical backing.