Sholing vs Chichester City: match statistics

Sholing have won 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 4 goals, while Chichester City managed 1 win over the same period and conceded as many as 13. At home, the hosts average 1.4 goals, compared with just 0.8 for the visitors away from home; Chichester have failed to score in 40% of those matches. Both teams have a 40% win rate in their respective home and away fixtures, but the visitors concede an average of 2 goals away, compared with 1.8 conceded by Sholing at home. Although Chichester’s away xG of 1.36 is higher than Sholing’s home xG of 1.17, the hosts are clearly better at limiting the quality of chances they allow: their average xG against is 0.84, compared with 1.54 for the visitors. Current form and performance in these respective conditions therefore point to a Sholing win, despite the hosts having lost 3 of their last 5 home matches.

Sholing score regularly at home, averaging 2.5 goals per match, while Chichester City concede 2.0 on the road, making a home goal likely. The bigger uncertainty is the visitors’ scoring output: they average just 0.8 goals away from home and have failed to score in 40% of their matches, while Sholing have conceded an average of 0.8 goals across their last 5 matches. However, the data do not provide a strong case for BTTS - No, as Chichester have averaged 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of those games. Despite this improvement, just 20% of Chichester’s away matches have seen both teams score, compared with 75% of Sholing’s home matches. Therefore, the slightly more likely scenario is that the hosts score while the visitors fail to find the net. BTTS - No means at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 100% of Sholing’s home matches and 80% of Chichester City’s away matches. The hosts average 2.5 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.0 on the road; Chichester have also conceded 13 goals in their last five matches, or 2.6 per game. Sholing’s attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.45, although their recent scoring average is 1.2 goals, so I estimate the hosts’ tally more conservatively at 2.05. The visitors score just 0.8 goals per away game, so their projection is 1.05, putting the expected total at 3.10 goals. Over 2.5 goals has weaker support in the results, having landed in 60% of Chichester’s away matches, so Over 1.5 goals is the safer pick.

Sholing led at the break in 3 of the 4 matches analysed, while Chichester City were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 5, which supports the case for the hosts taking the lead before the break. The hosts average 1.25 first-half goals, while the visitors concede 1.2 goals in the first half. Sholing’s higher scoring output supports them maintaining their advantage: they average 2.5 goals per match, compared with Chichester City’s 0.8, while the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals. In their last five matches, Sholing have won 3 times, while Chichester City have lost 3 times. The main risk to the 1/1 pick is the hosts’ more recent run, in which they were level at half-time in 75% of matches, making the draw/Sholing HT/FT outcome a significant alternative.