Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata: match statistics

Montedio Yamagata sit 3rd, while Shonan Bellmare are 7th, and the visitors scored 2 goals in the only fixture played so far this season, compared with 1 goal for the hosts. In their last five matches, Yamagata won twice and averaged 1.2 points per game, whereas Shonan suffered as many as 4 defeats, winning just once and averaging 0.6 points. The visitors were also more effective during this period, scoring 6 goals compared with Shonan’s 3. Both defenses have struggled, with Yamagata conceding 7 and Shonan 8 goals in their last five appearances, but the visitors’ superior attacking output should give them the edge. Home advantage limits the size of the gap, but current trends point to a Montedio Yamagata victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as only 20% of matches in the available league data saw both teams score, while 80% produced at least one clean sheet. Shonan kept a clean sheet in 100% of matches in the available sample, despite averaging 1.57 expected goals against. The hosts’ recent attacking form is poor: they have scored 3 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 0.6 per match, with an xG of 1.10. Montedio have scored more frequently, averaging 1.2 goals with an xG of 1.64 in their last five matches, but BTTS landed in only 40% of those games for both teams. The scenario in which Shonan fail to convert their limited attacking efficiency is particularly risky for the BTTS - Yes outcome; therefore, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Shonan’s last five matches averaged 2.2 goals, with the team scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.6 goals per game. Over the same period, Montedio’s matches averaged 2.6 goals, although they scored only 1.2 goals while conceding 1.4. The xG-based attacking potential stands at 1.10 for the home side and 1.64 for the visitors, indicating a projection of around 2.45 goals rather than an open, high-scoring game with four goals. At this stage, the league has a very low average of 1.8 goals per match, with Over 2.5 goals landing in only 10% of games. The strongest selection is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as even with Montedio holding a moderate advantage, the most likely total-goals range is 1-3.

Montedio Yamagata are in better current form: they have won 40% of their last five matches and averaged 1.2 goals, while Shonan have won just 20% and scored 0.6 goals per match. The visitors have been particularly solid at the start of matches, as they have not conceded a single goal before half-time in this sequence, while Shonan scored just 0.2 goals in the first halves and failed to find the net in 80% of them. Yamagata led at the break in 40% of their recent matches, whereas the hosts were trailing after 45 minutes in 40%, strengthening the scenario of an away advantage in the first half. After the interval, Shonan continue to struggle, conceding an average of 0.8 goals, while Montedio average as many as 1.8 total goals in second halves. The most likely outcome is therefore 2/2, although the visitors’ high 60% rate of half-time draws leaves a significant chance of an X/2 outcome.