Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wisłoka Dębica: match statistics

Wisłoka Dębica have the better record over their last five matches, collecting 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Siarka have managed only 4 points. The hosts have lost both of their home games so far, scoring an average of just 0.5 goals and conceding 2 per match. Wisłoka average 1.33 goals away from home, have failed to score in none of their matches, and have lost only 33% of such fixtures. Siarka do create more quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.31 compared with Wisłoka’s 0.91 away from home, but convert just 5% of their shots, compared with the visitors’ 25% conversion rate. The hosts’ defence allows opponents an xG of 1.83 and has yet to keep a clean sheet, so the more clinical Wisłoka should be given the edge.

The BTTS - Yes signal is clear, as both teams have scored in 100% of Wisłoka’s matches this season and in 50% of Siarka’s; over the last five fixtures, the figures stand at 80% and 60%, respectively. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and both have conceded 8 goals in their matches so far, increasing the likelihood of a goal for each side. Siarka averages 1.50 goals and 6 shots on target per home match, while Wisłoka averages 1.33 goals. Their attacking potential is also supported by their recent xG figures: 1.42 for Siarka and 1.26 for Wisłoka, with xG against at 1.52 and 1.54, respectively. Although Siarka have failed to score in 50% of their league matches, the defensive weaknesses of both teams and Wisłoka’s strong BTTS trend support a scenario in which both teams score.

Siarka averages 1.50 goals, while Wisłoka concedes 1.33, with the home side generating a high 1.61 xG per match. Wisłoka scores an average of 1.33 goals, while Siarka’s defense allows an average of 2.00 goals, giving the visitors a realistic chance of finding the net. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and both sides have recorded at least 2 goals in 100% of their matches so far. In their last five games, both teams conceded 1.60 goals per match, while the average total number of goals was 2.8 for Siarka and 3.0 for Wisłoka. The Over 1.5 goals line is therefore the strongest data-backed option, although the projected total of 2.75 goals makes the Over 2.5 market more evenly balanced.

Wisłoka Dębica have the stronger first-half profile: in their last five matches, they led at the break in 50% of games and never went into half-time trailing, while Siarka were behind after 45 minutes in 50% of cases. During this period, the visitors conceded an average of 0.0 goals before half-time, whereas the hosts scored just 0.25 goals, reinforcing the scenario of Wisłoka having the advantage at the interval. After the break, Wisłoka have averaged 2.0 goals over their last five matches and recorded 2.0 points per game in this phase, compared with Siarka’s 1.0 goal and 0.75 points. The hosts do have the higher average xG, 1.61 compared with 0.91, but their current form stands at just 1 win and 3 defeats in their last five outings. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains the visitors maintaining their lead through to full-time.