Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing: match statistics

Sichuan Jiuniu as the home side holds a clear edge in key metrics: at home they average 1.83 goals scored and concede 1.5 per match, whereas Dalian Zhixing on the road average 1.33 goals scored and concede 2.67. Average xG also favors the hosts: Sichuan’s home xG is 1.44 versus visitors’ 1.31, and xG against is 1.34 for Sichuan compared to 1.69 for Dalian, suggesting higher quality chances created by the hosts. Although Dalian sit higher in the table (4th vs 11th), both teams’ forms are poor — Sichuan’s last 5: 1W, 1D, 3L (0.8 pts per game), Dalian: 1W, 4L (0.6 pts per game). The hosts generate more shots (13.83 vs 10.5) and have 33% clean sheets at home versus the visitors’ 17% clean sheets away, while Dalian have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches. Considering the better goals average (1.83 vs 1.33), lower xG against (1.34 vs 1.69) and the visitors’ weaker defense, I forecast a Sichuan Jiuniu win.

I predict BTTS - Yes is more likely in this match. The league BTTS rate is 61%, with team seasonal BTTS at 50% (Sichuan) and 67% (Dalian); both teams have 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches. xG suggests goals from both sides: Sichuan xG_for 1.78 vs Dalian xG_against 1.69, and Dalian xG_for 1.31 vs Sichuan xG_against 1.02, so expected goals favor both teams scoring. Additionally, Dalian concedes on average 2.67 goals this season and 2.4 in the last 5 matches (12 conceded), while Sichuan concedes 1.17 this season and 1.2 in the last 5 (6 conceded), which increases the likelihood of a Goal/Goal outcome. Overall, considering league BTTS 61%, last5 BTTS 60% and clear xG signals plus high average goals conceded, I assign 72% to Yes and 28% to No.

Averaging the home attack (xG 1.78) with the away defense (xG against 1.69) and the away attack (xG 1.31) with the home defense (xG against 1.02) yields expected goals of approximately 1.73 for Sichuan and 1.17 for Dalian, totaling 2.90. Seasonal indicators support this: Sichuan have 67% of matches over 1.5 and 2.5, Dalian 83% for the same thresholds, and the league average is 2.99 goals per game — the combined team average suggests roughly a 75% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, Dalian concede on average 2.67 goals per game this season (23 conceded) and 12 goals in the last 5 (2.4 per game), while Sichuan average 16.83 shots with 4.5 on target and a 10% conversion rate, increasing the likelihood of scoring opportunities. Both teams have Over 0.5 goals in 100% of matches, BTTS occurs in 50% of Sichuan games and 67% of Dalian games, whereas Over 3.5 is less certain (seasonally 33% for Sichuan and 50% for Dalian), so I rate Over 3.5 lower. As a result, the strongest signal is the Over 2.5 line — I assess its probability at about 74% (Under 26%), therefore I recommend backing Over 2.5.

I back a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1) because Sichuan holds a clear seasonal advantage: +2.0 points per game and a 67% win rate versus Dalian’s +1.0 points and 33% win rate. The home side’s xG is 1.78 compared to the visitors’ 1.31, and Dalian concedes on average 2.67 goals per match versus Sichuan’s 1.17 conceded, indicating a weaker away defense. Second-half statistics are pivotal: the hosts score on average 1.5 goals after the break and concede only 0.33 (scored_2hg_avg_home 1.5, conceded_2hg_avg_home 0.33) and have won the second half in 83% of cases, which favors a turnaround after half-time. The hosts’ first halves often finish level — in the last five matches a Half-Time draw occurred in 60% of games (last5_drawingAtHTPercentage_overall_home 60%) — hence the X/1 scenario is the strongest; the overall probabilities are a 62% chance of a home win, 25% for a full-time draw, and 13% for an away win.