Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai SIPG: match statistics

Sichuan Jiuniu are clearly stronger at home, winning 50% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.92 goals and posting a positive goal difference of +7. The hosts also create more chances: their average home xG stands at 1.47, compared with Shanghai SIPG’s 1.11 away from home, while their number of shots on target is 4.67 versus 3.33 for their opponents. Shanghai SIPG have been in good form recently, picking up 10 points from five matches and recording 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, so their chances should not be underestimated. However, the visitors’ away defence remains vulnerable to mistakes, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in only 8% of games. Given Sichuan Jiuniu’s attacking efficiency, as they fail to score in just 8% of their home fixtures, home advantage should be enough to secure the hosts a narrow victory.

Both teams have an identical, very high 75% rate of matches featuring a goal for both sides this season, well above the league average of 63%. Sichuan Jiuniu average 1.75 goals scored, while Shanghai SIPG average 1.50, with their opponents conceding 1.67 and 1.08 goals per match, respectively. In their last five matches, the hosts scored 8 and conceded 10 goals, while the visitors scored 9 and allowed 7 goals, with BTTS occurring in 60% and 80% of those games, respectively. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG: 1.74 for the hosts across the season and an impressive 1.77 for the visitors over their last five league fixtures. The low percentages of matches without scoring—8% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 17% for Shanghai SIPG—further support a BTTS - Yes outcome.

The Over 1.5 goals line is strongly supported by the data: at least 2 goals were scored in 92% of the home side’s matches and 75% of the away side’s games, while neither team recorded a goalless match. The home side scores an average of 1.75 goals and creates chances worth 1.74 xG, whereas the away side concedes an average of 1.67 goals with 1.47 xG allowed to opponents. The away side should also contribute, as the home side concedes an average of 1.08 goals, and both teams found the net in 75% of their matches. In their last five games, the teams scored 17 goals combined and conceded 17, while 60% of their matches went Over 2.5 goals, further strengthening the prediction of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sichuan Jiuniu win in the match, as both teams often start cautiously: the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 42% of their matches, compared with 58% for the visitors. In the first halves, the hosts score an average of 0.58 goals and concede 0.67, while the visitors record averages of 1.25 and 1.17 total goals respectively, which supports a balanced scoreline at the break. After half-time, Sichuan Jiuniu improve markedly, scoring an average of 1.17 goals and conceding just 0.42, whereas Shanghai SIPG concede as many as 1.17 goals per match after the break and lost the second half in 67% of their matches. The hosts also have stronger full-season metrics, scoring 1.75 goals per match with an xG of 1.74, compared with 1.50 goals and an xG of 1.11 for the visitors. The risk of an away win remains significant, as they have won 60% of their last five matches; however, the hosts’ second-half advantage points towards a turnaround or a decisive result after a draw at half-time.