Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice: match statistics

Sigma Olomouc are 6th, while Pardubice sit 13th, and the difference is reflected in their recent form: the hosts have collected 10 points from their last five matches, whereas the visitors have managed just 1. Sigma have scored 11 goals in that period, compared with only 4 for Pardubice, who have conceded as many as 10. At home, the hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 18 shots and 8 on target per match, compared with Pardubice’s 9.5 shots and 5 on target away from home. The quality of chances also favours Sigma, whose average home xG stands at 2.23, while Pardubice’s away xG is 1.28, and the visitors’ defence allows an average of 2.10 xG. Both teams concede 2 goals in their respective conditions, so Pardubice could find the net, but the visitors have lost both of their away matches, making a Sigma victory the more likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have recorded a “Both Teams To Score” outcome in 80% of their last five matches, while Pardubice have also seen it in 100% of their games this season. Sigma have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last five league fixtures, whereas Pardubice have conceded as many as 2.0 goals per match, strongly supporting a goal from the hosts. The visitors have scored just 0.8 goals per match during this run, but Sigma have kept a clean sheet in none of their games this season and have allowed opponents an xG of 1.42. Pardubice also have not kept a single clean sheet, with their average xG conceded standing at 1.51, alongside a high seasonal figure of 2.10. Despite the visitors’ poor results, the combination of their 1.52 xG and Sigma’s uncertain defence makes a Goal/Goal scenario more likely than at least one team failing to score. In other words, BTTS - Yes is favoured over BTTS - No, which means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Sigma have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last five matches, while Pardubice have conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game over the same period. The hosts are creating high-quality chances at 1.74 xG, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents 2.10 xG, which strongly supports at least two goals in the match. Pardubice should also contribute, as their average xG over their last five outings stands at 1.52, while Sigma have conceded 1.2 goals per game during that period. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of the teams’ matches so far, and the league-wide average is a high 3.1 goals. Over 1.5 is therefore the strongest signal, as even below-average finishing from either side would be offset by the data on chances created and defensive vulnerability, significantly reducing the likelihood of a one-goal-or-fewer outcome.

Sigma Olomouc are in clearly better form: they have averaged 2.2 goals, won 60% of their last five matches and collected 2.0 points per game, while Pardubice have scored just 0.8 goals, failed to win any of those matches and lost 80% of them. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as Sigma held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding just 0.2, whereas Pardubice were ahead at half-time in only 20% of their matches and conceded an average of 0.8 goals before the break. The hosts also create significantly more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.74 compared with their opponents’ 1.28 and an average of 17 shots per match versus Pardubice’s 9.5; the visitors’ defence allows an average xG of 2.1. After the break, Pardubice continue to concede an average of 1.2 goals across their last five matches, making it most likely that Sigma will preserve the lead established before half-time, resulting in the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.