Simba vs JKT Tanzania: match statistics

Simba is the favorite in this matchup: they sit 2nd in the table, win 67% of home games and average 2.11 goals while conceding only 0.56 per match. In home fixtures their xG is 1.73 versus opponents’ xG of 0.86, they average 4.75 shots on target per game with an 18% conversion rate, which translates into 67% clean sheets. JKT Tanzania are 5th, on the road they score 1.1 and concede 1.4 on average, have an xG of 1.21 against an xG conceded of 1.3 and have shipped 11 goals in the last 5 matches compared to Simba’s 3. The visitors register only 3 shots on target per away game, a 12% conversion and 30% of away matches without scoring, which limits their ability to recover deficits on the road. Considering the higher home xG (1.73 vs 1.21), superior efficiency (2.11 vs 1.1 goals per game) and Simba’s defensive edge (0.56 conceded vs 1.4), I forecast a home win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 40% (Simba 40%, JKT Tanzania 40%), while the league average BTTS is only 33% and 83% of league matches end with a clean sheet for one side. Simba has a strong defense: they concede 0.6 goals per game season-to-date and record clean sheets in 50% of matches; in the last 5 games they scored an average of 1.6 goals (8 goals) and conceded 0.6 goals (3 goals). JKT shows clear offensive and defensive issues: seasonally they score 1.1 goals and concede 1.4 goals, but in the last 5 matches they averaged only 0.8 goals (4 goals) and conceded 2.2 goals (11 goals). Despite similar attacking xG (xG 1.24 for Simba vs 1.21 for JKT), xG against highlights JKT’s weaker defense (1.3 vs 0.94), increasing the likelihood that Simba will score and the visitors will not respond. Based on these figures I assess the probability of BTTS - No at 65% versus 35% for BTTS - Yes, as the higher probability is driven by the hosts’ strong defense and JKT’s poor finishing in recent games.

Based on xG: Simba has xG_for 1.24 and the opponent xG_against 1.30, yielding an estimated 1.27 expected goals for the home side; JKT has xG_for 1.21 vs the home side’s xG_against 0.94, giving ~1.08 for the away team, totaling 2.35 goals. With a mean of 2.35 the Poisson distribution implies roughly a 68% probability of Over 1.5 goals, 42% for Over 2.5 and only 21% for Over 3.5. Additionally, seasonal figures show Simba scored 32 and conceded 9 goals (clean sheets 50%), while JKT has 21 scored and 20 conceded (conceded 11 in the last 5), which limits the likelihood of a very high goal count. Season-long Over 2.5 is 20% for Simba and 50% for JKT (35% average), and the last 5 matches for both teams show 60% Over 2.5, so risk is elevated, but the expected total of 2.35 and the low 21% chance of >3.5 support taking Under 3.5. Therefore I recommend the under side on the 3.5 line as the strongest signal (approx. 79% chance of fewer than 4 goals).

According to the analysis I predict the 1/1 variant (home team leading at half-time and winning at full-time), which I assign the highest probability of 40%. The main arguments are first-half statistics: Simba led at the break in 3 of the last 5 matches (60% in the last 5) and seasonally in 30% of fixtures, with an average of 0.4 goals at half-time for the home side versus 0.11 for JKT. In the second half JKT shows greater offensive activity – scoring an average of 0.89 goals after the break versus 0.6 for Simba, and JKT’s matches average 2.0 goals in the second half – therefore I also account for the risk of an equalizer (1/X 8%) or a full-time draw (X/X 12%). Additionally, in the last 5 matches Simba scores on average 1.6 goals and concedes 0.6, while JKT has 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded, and xG is 1.24 versus 1.21, which confirms Simba’s advantage and justifies choosing 1/1 as the strongest signal.