Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara30/06/2026, 13:00Benjamin Mkapa National StadiumData current as of 07 September 2026

Simba vs KMC: match statistics

1 : 0half-time 0:0

Simba vs KMC: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Simba played KMC in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 30 June 2026. Venue: Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium. Final score: 1:0.

Current form

Simba: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. KMC: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.

Goal statistics

Simba scores 1.82 and concedes 0.39 goals per match. KMC scores 0.59 and concedes 1.78. League average: 2.17 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Simba 29%, KMC 33%. Over 2.5: Simba 50%, KMC 41%. League level: BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 39%.

xG, shots and style

Simba has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.25. Simba: 8.9 shots per match, KMC: 6.8.

Match halves

Simba: half-time lead 61%, second-half goals 0.79. KMC: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.30.

Goals by minute

Simba: 31-45+ (13 goals). KMC: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Ligi kuu Bara: 2.17 goals per match, BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 39%.

Head-to-head

No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Simba is the clear favorite: at home they win 79% of matches, score on average 2.07 goals per game and concede only 0.43, while KMC have no away wins (0%) and average 0.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. In the last 5 matches Simba has 5 wins (averaging 3 points per game), whereas KMC lost all 5 fixtures, averaging 0 points and conceding 12 goals. Quality of chances also favors the hosts: Simba’s home xG is 1.64, they attempt 10.69 shots per game with 4.46 on target and convert at 19%, while KMC away have xG 1.14, 7.27 shots with 2.82 on target and a 5% conversion rate, and fail to score in 64% of away matches. Defensively Simba is solid — 71% clean sheets at home and a home goal difference of +23, whereas KMC have 0% clean sheets away and a negative goal difference of -22, clearly indicating defensive vulnerability. Based on this, I predict a home win as the most likely outcome, with a low probability of a draw or a KMC victory.

View the statistical overview

BTTS - will both teams score?

Simba holds a clear advantage – they have scored 51 and conceded 11 this season, while KMC have 16 for and 48 against, indicating the hosts will dominate scoring. In the last 5 matches Simba average 1.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, whereas KMC average 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded per game, so form strongly favors the hosts and points to low away efficiency. Season BTTS rates are low: Simba 31% and KMC 36%, and the league percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 35%, which further reduces the likelihood of BTTS - Yes. xG confirms Simba’s superiority (xG 1.36 vs 1.14 KMC) and shows that in the last 5 matches Simba’s opponents generated only 0.71 xG versus 1.6 xG against KMC, therefore it is more likely that only one team scores (selection: No Goal).

View BTTS statistics

Over/Under - goals analysis

I calculated expected goals based on xG: Simba xG_for 1.36 versus KMC defense xG_against 1.38 gives 1.37 for the home side, and KMC xG_for 1.14 versus Simba defense xG_against 1.83 gives 1.49 for the away side, totaling 2.86 goals. With a mean of 2.86 the Poisson model yields roughly a 78% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 54% for Over 2.5 and around 32% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Simba have scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) and conceded 1 (0.2) in their last 5 matches, while KMC have conceded 12 goals (2.4) and scored 3 (0.6) in their last 5, which increases the likelihood of multiple goals. Although season-long Over 2.5 occurred in 31% of Simba’s matches and 50% of KMC’s, and season Over 3.5 percentages are only 23% and 21%, current xG and form suggest higher chances of at least 2 goals in the match. Based on these figures I recommend an Over bet at the 1.5 line as the most sensible and least risky choice.

View Over/Under statistics

HT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario

Simba is in excellent form — they have won 5 of their last 5 matches (100% wins in the last 5), while KMC have lost all 5 of their most recent fixtures (0% wins). In the last 5 matches Simba led at the break in 3 of 5 games (60%), whereas KMC did not lead at the break in any of those five (0%), and on the season the visitors have been losing at the break in 62% of matches. Simba creates more high-quality chances: average xG 1.36 versus KMC’s 1.14, more shots 8.15 versus 7.27 and better conversion 8% versus 5%; KMC concede on average 2.14 goals per game compared to 1.38 conceded by Simba. KMC look particularly weak before half-time — the visitors conceded 8 goals between the 31st and 45th minute, while Simba scored 3 in that interval; in the last 5 matches Simba scored 5 goals by half-time, therefore the strongest signal is the 1/1 scenario (Simba leads at the break and wins).

View first-half and second-half statistics

Half-by-half

0 : 0

1st half

1 : 0

2nd half

Match statistics

50Possession (%)50

SimbaKMC

4Shots3

SimbaKMC

3Shots on target2

SimbaKMC

0.71xG0.39

SimbaKMC

5Corners0

SimbaKMC

34Dangerous attacks8

SimbaKMC

-1Fouls-1

SimbaKMC

-1Cards-1

SimbaKMC

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

2.39Points per match0.33

SimbaKMC

1.82Goals scored / match0.59

SimbaKMC

0.39Goals conceded / match1.78

SimbaKMC

1.6xG for1.25

SimbaKMC

50%Average possession44%

SimbaKMC

3.5Shots on target / match2.48

SimbaKMC

68%Clean sheets11%

SimbaKMC

29%Both teams scored33%

SimbaKMC

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

8.86Shots per match6.78

SimbaKMC

3.5Shots on target2.48

SimbaKMC

20.6%Shot conversion8.7%

SimbaKMC

50%Possession44%

SimbaKMC

1.6xG for1.25

SimbaKMC

0.87xG against1.61

SimbaKMC

Shooting quality

Simba: Efficient finishingKMC: Balanced

	Simba	KMC
Accuracy (shots on target)	40%	37%
Chance quality (xG per shot)	0.18	0.18
Finishing (goals per shot on target)	0.52	0.24

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Simba

WWWWW

5 wins in a row

Season result split

71% W25% R4% P

Season (W-D-L)

20-7-1

2.39 pts / match · goal difference +40

Last 5 (W-D-L)

5-0-0

3.00 pts / match

Record at home (W-D-L)

11-2-1

Last 5 at home

5-0-0

WWWWW

Last 5 matches - averages

Goals scored: 1.8Goals conceded: 0.2xG: 1.38Opponent xG: 0.71BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 40%

KMC

LLLLL

No win in the last 5 matches

Season result split

7% W11% R81% P

Season (W-D-L)

2-3-22

0.33 pts / match · goal difference -32

Last 5 (W-D-L)

0-0-5

0.00 pts / match

Record away (W-D-L)

0-1-13

Last 5 away

0-0-5

LLLLL

Last 5 matches - averages

Goals scored: 0.6Goals conceded: 2.4xG: 1.11Opponent xG: 1.60BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Simba is 208% better for: goals scored per match.

1.82 goals / match - Simba · 0.59 goals / match - KMC

Simba is 356% better for: goals conceded per match.

0.39 goals / match - Simba · 1.78 goals / match - KMC

Simba scoring profile: very strong

Simba scores in 82% of matches (23 of 28 matches), while KMC keeps a clean sheet in 11% (3 of 27 matches).

KMC scoring profile: more difficult

KMC scores in 41% of matches (11 of 27 matches), while Simba keeps a clean sheet in 68% (19 of 28 matches).

51Goals scored (season)16

SimbaKMC

11Goals conceded (season)48

SimbaKMC

2.21Average goals in match2.37

SimbaKMC

9Goals scored (last 5)3

SimbaKMC

1Goals conceded (last 5)12

SimbaKMC

Simba

68%

Clean sheets19 of 28 matches

18%

No goal5 of 28 matches

KMC

11%

Clean sheets3 of 27 matches

59%

No goal16 of 27 matches

How often they score at least...

82%1 goal41%

SimbaKMC

64%2 goals15%

SimbaKMC

32%3 goals4%

SimbaKMC

4%4 goals0%

SimbaKMC

How often they concede at least...

32%1 goal89%

SimbaKMC

7%2 goals44%

SimbaKMC

0%3 goals37%

SimbaKMC

0%4 goals7%

SimbaKMC

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

29%

Simba - BTTS8 of 28 matches

33%

KMC - BTTS9 of 27 matches

35%

League average

Goal patterns

21%BTTS at half-time19%

SimbaKMC

0%BTTS in both halves7%

SimbaKMC

46%Scored in both halves11%

SimbaKMC

BTTS and goal count

21%Min. 3 goals and BTTS26%

SimbaKMC

29%Min. 3 goals without BTTS15%

SimbaKMC

20%BTTS - last 540%

SimbaKMC

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

Full match - team comparison (Over)

86%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)96%

SimbaKMC

75%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)52%

SimbaKMC

50%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)41%

SimbaKMC

11%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)22%

SimbaKMC

0%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)19%

SimbaKMC

Over / Under - Simba

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 86%Under 14%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 75%Under 25%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 50%Under 50%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 11%Under 89%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 0%Under 100%

Over / Under - KMC

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 96%Under 4%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 52%Under 48%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 41%Under 59%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 22%Under 78%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 19%Under 81%

1st half

71%Min. 1 goal before half-time70%

SimbaKMC

39%Min. 2 goals before half-time41%

SimbaKMC

14%Min. 3 goals before half-time15%

SimbaKMC

2nd half

68%Min. 1 goal after half-time59%

SimbaKMC

25%Min. 2 goals after half-time22%

SimbaKMC

4%Min. 3 goals after half-time15%

SimbaKMC

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Simba is 199% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

2.21 pts / match - Simba · 0.74 pts / match - KMC

Simba - half-time state

61% leading39% draw0% trailing

KMC - half-time state

11% leading41% draw48% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

2.21Points per match (1st half)0.74

SimbaKMC

1.04Goals scored (1st half)0.3

SimbaKMC

0.21Goals conceded (1st half)0.96

SimbaKMC

1.25Average goals (1st half)1.26

SimbaKMC

79%Clean sheet before half-time41%

SimbaKMC

29%No goal before half-time70%

SimbaKMC

After half-time (2nd half)

2.04Points per match (2nd half)0.7

SimbaKMC

0.79Goals scored (2nd half)0.3

SimbaKMC

0.18Goals conceded (2nd half)0.78

SimbaKMC

0.96Average goals (2nd half)1.07

SimbaKMC

86%Clean sheet after half-time44%

SimbaKMC

43%No goal after half-time78%

SimbaKMC

Simba - second-half results

57% W32% R11% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

+23

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

+17

Goal difference (2nd half)

2.21

PPG before half-time

Lead holding116%

Leads at half-time in 61% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time-0.0

Defence stays stable across the full match.

KMC - second-half results

7% W48% R44% P

Half-time points

Half-time goals

-18

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

-13

Goal difference (2nd half)

0.74

PPG before half-time

Lead holding64%

Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 7%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.

Defence after half-time-0.2

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Simba - last 5 matches by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per match	2.20	2.60
Goals scored / match	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded / match	0.2	0.0
Average goals in match	1.0	1.0
1 goal	80%	80%
2 goals	20%	20%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	80%	100%
No goal	20%	20%
Goal difference	+3	+5

Half-time: 60% leading - 40% draw - 0% trailing

2nd half: 80% won - 20% draw - 0% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 4

KMC - last 5 matches by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per match	0.00	0.80
Goals scored / match	0.4	0.2
Goals conceded / match	2.0	0.4
Average goals in match	2.4	0.6
1 goal	100%	40%
2 goals	80%	20%
3 goals	60%	0%
Clean sheet	0%	60%
No goal	60%	80%
Goal difference	-8	-1

Half-time: 0% leading - 0% draw - 100% trailing

2nd half: 0% won - 80% draw - 20% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Simba

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.

KMC

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.29

Estimated goals

attack vs opponent defence

1.8 : 0.5

Estimated goal split

home : away

106%

Pace vs league

100% = league average

31%

Both teams scored (BTTS)

average from both teams' seasons

-100%

Derby effect

H2H goals vs typical matches

34%

BTTS estimate

from both teams' scoring frequency

11%

0:0 risk

about 1 in 9 matches

0-1

Most common goal range

attack vs defence on both sides

Simba

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

+0.73

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

+0.70

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

-13.3 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

+0.22

Defensive efficiency

Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.

+0.48

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

140%

Defence vs league

How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.

45%

Form trend

Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.

+0.61

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

-0.3

Late goals

18% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 18% come in the first quarter-hour.

18%

KMC

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

-0.36

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

-0.83

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

+0.9 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

-0.66

Defensive efficiency

Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.

-0.17

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

69%

Defence vs league

How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.

137%

Form trend

Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.

-0.33

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

0.0

Late goals

25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 0% come in the first quarter-hour.

25%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).

Teams vs league

	Simba	Liga	KMC
Average goals in match	• 2.21	2.17	▲ 2.37
Both teams scored	▼ 29%	35%	▼ 33%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 50%	39%	▲ 41%
Clean sheets	▲ 68%	39%	▼ 11%
Goal before half-time	▲ 71%	61%	▲ 70%
Goal after half-time	▲ 68%	63%	▼ 59%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.17

Average goals per match

35%

Both teams scored

39%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

39%

Clean sheets

1.30

Home goals / match

0.86

Away goals / match

+51%

Home attack advantage

+34%

Home defence advantage

+19%

Total home advantage

Goals in 1st half (whole league)

61%

1 goal

32%

2 goals

3 goals

4 goals

Goals in 2nd half (whole league)

63%

1 goal

27%

2 goals

10%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Other recorded players

—Inno Jospin Loemba⚽ 1

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

56'
SimbaGoalInno Jospin Loemba

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

Home managerSteve Barker Away managerMárcio Máximo Barcellos

FAQ

What was the result of Simba vs KMC?

The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Simba 1:0 KMC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before Simba vs KMC?

Simba score 1.82 goals per game on average and KMC 0.59. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 29% of Simba's matches and 33% of KMC's.

What form are Simba and KMC in?

Over the last 5 games Simba have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and KMC 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Simba vs KMC?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Simba vs KMC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.