Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar: match statistics
Simba presents impressive home form with a 75% win rate and only 25% losses at their own stadium, averaging 2.25 goals with a 20% conversion rate. The hosts hold a significant advantage in possession (58% vs 45%) and a clearly better xG balance (1.82 vs 0.94), evidencing their offensive dominance. Mtibwa Sugar has not won a single away match this season (0% wins), failing to score in 100% of matches on the road, which is an alarming sign. The difference in quality is obvious—Simba has a +7 goal difference at home, whereas the visitors are -3 on their travels. Given all statistics, a decisive victory for the hosts is the most probable scenario for this match.
Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Simba played Mtibwa Sugar in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 18 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Simba: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Mtibwa Sugar: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Simba scores 2.20 and concedes 0.60 goals per match. Mtibwa Sugar scores 0.50 and concedes 0.50. League average: 1.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Simba 20%, Mtibwa Sugar 13%. Over 2.5: Simba 80%, Mtibwa Sugar 13%. League level: BTTS 25%, Over 2.5 25%.
xG, shots and style
Simba has higher xG: 1.52 vs 0.99. Simba: 6.2 shots per match, Mtibwa Sugar: 3.5.
Match halves
Simba: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 1.20. Mtibwa Sugar: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.13.
Goals by minute
Simba: 31-45+ (3 goals). Mtibwa Sugar: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 1.69 goals per match, BTTS 25%, Over 2.5 25%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Simba presents impressive home form with a 75% win rate and only 25% losses at their own stadium, averaging 2.25 goals with a 20% conversion rate. The hosts hold a significant advantage in possession (58% vs 45%) and a clearly better xG balance (1.82 vs 0.94), evidencing their offensive dominance. Mtibwa Sugar has not won a single away match this season (0% wins), failing to score in 100% of matches on the road, which is an alarming sign. The difference in quality is obvious—Simba has a +7 goal difference at home, whereas the visitors are -3 on their travels. Given all statistics, a decisive victory for the hosts is the most probable scenario for this match.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Simba | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.73 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Simba is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Simba · 1.2 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Simba is 340% better for: goals scored per match.
2.2 goals / match - Simba · 0.5 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.6 goals / match - Simba · 0.5 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Simba scores in 80% of matches (4 of 5 matches), while Mtibwa Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 63% (5 of 8 matches).
Mtibwa Sugar scores in 25% of matches (2 of 8 matches), while Simba keeps a clean sheet in 60% (3 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Simba
Over / Under - Mtibwa Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Simba is 193% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.2 pts / match - Simba · 0.75 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Simba - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 80%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mtibwa Sugar - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Simba
Mtibwa Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Simba | Liga | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.80 | 1.69 | ▼ 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 20% | 25% | ▼ 13% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 80% | 25% | ▼ 13% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 60% | 46% | ▲ 63% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 60% | 41% | ▼ 38% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 52% | ▼ 25% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- SimbaGoalElie Mpanzu KibisawalaAssist: Shomari Salum Kapombe
FAQ
What was the result of Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Simba 1:1 Mtibwa Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar?
Simba score 2.20 goals per game on average and Mtibwa Sugar 0.50. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 1.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 25% of games. Both teams score in 20% of Simba's matches and 13% of Mtibwa Sugar's.
What form are Simba and Mtibwa Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Simba have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Mtibwa Sugar 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Simba vs Mtibwa Sugar?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.