Sint-Truiden vs Lommel United: match statistics

Lommel United head into this match in significantly better form, having won 4 of their last 5 games and averaging 2.4 points per match, compared with Sint-Truiden’s 1.4. The visitors scored 12 goals during this period, averaging 2.4 per game, while the hosts netted 7. Lommel United’s defence has also looked more solid, conceding just 5 goals in five appearances, compared with 7 conceded by Sint-Truiden. The hosts have home advantage, but their record over the last five matches stands at just 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Given their clearly greater attacking efficiency and a run of four consecutive victories following an earlier defeat, a Lommel United win appears more likely.

The BTTS signal is primarily based on recent form: both teams scored in 60% of Sint-Truiden’s last five matches, compared with as many as 80% for Lommel United. The hosts scored and conceded 1.4 goals per match on average during this period, pointing to a recurring goal-trading scenario. Lommel scored 12 goals in five appearances, averaging 2.4 per game, while Sint-Truiden allowed opponents an average of 1.47 xG. At the same time, the hosts created an average of 1.43 xG, while Lommel’s defence allowed opponents 1.82 xG, so the case for a home goal is also well supported by the data. Although Lommel conceded just 1.0 goal per match across their last five games, the combination of both sides’ high attacking efficiency makes BTTS - Yes the more likely option.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Sint-Truiden’s last five matches produced an average of 2.8 goals, while Lommel United’s matches averaged as many as 3.4 goals. During this period, Lommel United scored 2.4 goals per game, whereas Sint-Truiden conceded an average of 1.4, which clearly supports the prospect of goals from the visitors. The hosts also scored and conceded 1.4 goals per match, while their average xG of 1.43 was close to the opponents’ xG of 1.16. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Sint-Truiden’s last matches and in all 5 of Lommel United’s last matches, but the 1.5 line offers a clearer margin of safety.

Lommel United have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Sint-Truiden have recorded just 2 wins and suffered 2 defeats over the same period. The visitors have averaged 2.4 goals per match, significantly more than the hosts’ 1.4, while conceding only 1.0 goal compared with Sint-Truiden’s 1.4. Lommel were leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches and have not once gone into half-time trailing, whereas the hosts were behind at half-time in as many as 60% of their appearances. This difference is further underlined by Lommel’s average of 1.4 goals before the break, compared with Sint-Truiden’s 0.4. Therefore, the most likely scenario is for the visitors to lead at half-time and secure victory at the final whistle, corresponding to the HT/FT 2/2 selection.