Sion vs Thun: match statistics

Sion have a clear edge in chance creation at home, averaging 18.33 shots and an xG of 2.09, while Thun record 13.67 shots and an xG of 1.46 away from home. The hosts score 2.33 goals per home game, but Thun’s defensive weakness on the road is particularly significant: they concede as many as 2.67 goals per match, with an xGA of 2.02, and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The visitors are effective in attack, averaging 3 goals away from home and converting 22% of their shots, so they have strong arguments to find the net. Sion also control possession more often at home, averaging 57% compared with Thun’s 43%, and have won 67% of their home matches. Both teams have scored 14 goals in their last five matches, but Sion’s superior chance quality and the visitors’ highly vulnerable defence slightly favour a home win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is strongly supported by both teams’ very high scoring rates in their last five matches: Sion and Thun have averaged 2.8 goals scored each, while conceding 2.6 and 3.0 goals respectively. Sion recorded BTTS in 100% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Thun, and neither team has kept a clean sheet in the current season data. The hosts have created chances worth an average of 1.61 xG in their latest run, while Thun’s defence allows opponents an average of 1.96 xG, clearly increasing the likelihood of a Sion goal despite weaker data from the short home sample. Thun are even more convincing in away attack, averaging 3.0 goals and 4.67 shots on target per match, while Sion concede an average of 6.0 goals at home. An additional argument is the league BTTS frequency of 79% and an average of 4.11 goals per match, both favouring an open scenario with goals at both ends.

In their last five matches, Sion averaged 2.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, while Thun’s figures over the same period were 2.8 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game. Both teams recorded 100% of matches with at least three goals across these five appearances, while the league average stands at a very high 4.11 goals. The xG profile also supports an attacking outlook: Sion produces an average of 1.15 xG at home, compared with 2.02 xG conceded by Thun away from home, while Thun generates 1.46 xG against as much as 2.69 xG allowed by Sion. The visitors average 3.0 goals scored away from home, while the hosts concede 6.0 there, meaning that even a one-sided contribution from Thun should significantly move the match towards two goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the form data, chance quality and Sion’s very weak defence clearly reduce the risk of a 0:0 or 1:0 result.

Thun have a clear edge in terms of taking the lead before half-time: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals in the first half, compared with 0.8 for Sion, while the visitors were ahead at the break in 60% of those games. Sion were trailing at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, and in the current home data they have yet to score before the break while conceding an average of 3.0 goals. Thun’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, as they average 13.67 shots and 4.67 shots on target per match, compared with 10.0 and 3.0 respectively for the hosts. After the interval, Sion can be more dangerous, having recently averaged 2.0 goals, but their defence still concedes 1.6 goals, while Thun have averaged 2.33 goals in second halves across the season. The most likely scenario, therefore, is that the visitors will establish a lead at the break and hold on to it until the final whistle.