Široki Brijeg vs Rudar Prijedor: match statistics

Široki Brijeg is the favorite for this match: at home they average 1.07 goals per game with an average xG of 1.3 and 3.79 shots on target per match, and they win 50% of home games; Rudar away records only 0.57 goals with xG 1.0, 3.0 shots on target and just 7% away wins. The hosts’ key advantage is finishing and consistency in scoring — Široki have not had a single home game without a goal (0% such matches), while the visitors failed to score in 64% of their away games. Defensively the hosts concede 1.00 goal per home match on average and have kept a clean sheet in 43% of home games, whereas Rudar concedes 1.43 goals on the road and has only 21% clean sheets. Both teams are in poor form over the last 5 matches (0.8 points per game and 1 win each), so the tempo may be limited, but the statistical edge lies with the home side. Based on this I predict a Široki Brijeg win, given the xG advantage (+0.3), higher number of shots (10.57 vs 7.86) and the significantly lower share of opponent’s goalless matches.

I predict BTTS - No. The away team has very poor attacking numbers: 0.57 goals per game this season, 21 goals total and 64% of matches without scoring. The home side scores 0.93 goals per game (27 goals this season), but both teams concede an average of 1.43 goals each, giving a combined scoring average of 1.50 (0.93+0.57), well below the league average of 2.11. Seasonal BTTS rates diverge — home 57% vs away 29% (28 percentage point gap) — and the high share of away matches without a goal argues against Goal/Goal. xG data show 1.22 xG for the home team and 1.00 xG for the away team, with allowed xG around 1.60–1.68 per team. Although the away side averaged 1.2 goals and 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, that sample is small and does not offset the season-long scoring deficit. I assess BTTS probability at 35% for Yes and 65% for No, therefore selection: No.

The xG-based projection yields 1.45 expected goals for Široki Brijeg (xG for 1.22 vs xG against Rudar 1.68 => (1.22+1.68)/2=1.45) and 1.30 for Rudar Prijedor (xG for 1.00 vs xG against Široki 1.60 => (1.00+1.60)/2=1.30), totaling 2.75 expected goals. Seasonal rates show 79% of Široki’s matches and 50% of Rudar’s matches finish over 1.5 goals, which—given the 2.75 projection—provides strong support for Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is moderately probable: season-long Over 2.5 is 43% for the home side and 36% for the away, but the last 5 matches indicate 20% Over 2.5 for Široki and 60% for Rudar, so I estimate the chance of Over 2.5 at around 58%. Over 3.5 looks unlikely: seasonally Over 3.5 is 21% for Široki and 14% for Rudar, therefore Under 3.5 has the edge and I estimate it at ~76%.

The HT/FT model identifies 1/1 (home team leading at the break and winning) as the most probable scenario with an estimated probability of around 21%. At half-time a draw is most likely: Široki Brijeg averages 0.43 goals before the break and Rudar Prijedor 0.14, which the model translates into roughly a 49% chance of an HT draw (0-0 or 1-1). After the break the home advantage increases — Široki scores on average 0.5 goals in the second half versus 0.43 for the visitors, and the home xG is 1.22 compared to 1.00 for the away side; additionally the home shot conversion rate is 10% vs 7% for the opponents. As a result many half-time draws swing in Široki’s favour: from a draw at the break the model predicts about 33.7% of such matches end in a home win, which is why the combined HT/FT signal for 1/1 is the strongest. Recommended HT/FT pick: 1/1.