Široki Brijeg vs Zrinjski: match statistics

Zrinjski is the favorite in this match: they sit 2nd with 18 wins this season, while Široki Brijeg have 9 wins and are 6th. The form gap is clear — Široki have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 matches, have no wins and average 0.2 points per game, whereas Zrinjski have scored 7 goals in their last 5 and average 1.6 points per game. In terms of efficiency Zrinjski have a higher shot conversion (14% vs 10%) and average 1.4 goals away, while the hosts score 1.0 goal at home despite 3.67 shots on target per game, indicating the visitors make better use of their chances. Defensively the visitors also look more stable — Zrinjski concede 0.8 goals away and keep 47% clean sheets, while Široki concede 1.0 goals at home and have 40% clean sheets; the overall goal difference is 39 scored and 21 conceded for Zrinjski versus 27 scored and 40 conceded for Široki. Despite similar xG for home (1.27) and away (1.28), better form, higher efficiency and a more stable defense support a win for the visitors.

I back BTTS - No because the home side have averaged only 0.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches, while the visitors average 1.4 goals in the same period. The home team have conceded 1.8 goals on average in their last 5 (9 conceded), and their recent xG_for is 1.08 versus xG_against 1.52, indicating weaker offensive form and higher susceptibility to conceding. Seasonal indicators further support No: seasonal BTTS is 40% for the home team and 33% for the visitors, the league BTTS rate is only 37%, and clean sheets occur in 75% of league matches; both teams have 47% clean sheets this season. Although seasonally the home team generate higher xG (1.62 vs 1.28) and more shots (13.0 vs 9.8), their conversion rate of 9% versus the visitors’ 14% and recent form (home: 1 draw and 4 losses; away: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss) suggest the visitors will be more efficient and the home side may not score. Based on the above figures, I price BTTS - Yes at 25% and No at 75%.

The xG model projects about 1.40 goals for Široki Brijeg (attack xG 1.62 vs Zrinjski conceded xG 1.17) and about 1.05 for Zrinjski (attack xG 1.28 vs Široki conceded xG 0.83), with a total expected goals of 2.45. Both teams have 67% of this season’s matches with Over 1.5 goals (seasonOver15 67% and 67%), while the league average is 2.13 goals per game, which further supports Over 1.5. Široki averages 13.0 shots and 4.33 on target, Zrinjski 9.8 and 3.33; Zrinjski is more efficient (14% conversion vs 9% for Široki) and in the last 5 matches has scored 7 and conceded 3 compared to Široki’s 1 scored and 9 conceded, increasing the probability of at least two goals in the match. Seasonal Over 2.5 values are 27% for Široki and 40% for Zrinjski, so I assess Over 2.5 at a moderate 46%, while Over 3.5 is unlikely (0% and 13% in seasonal stats, I estimate ~12%). The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (86%): expected 2.45 goals plus a high share of matches >1.5 goals for both teams gives an edge for the Over 1.5 bet.

Zrinjski appears to be the favorite for the final result: they have a 67% win rate this season versus Široki’s 53%, and average 2.07 points per match compared to the hosts’ 1.93; in the last 5 matches Široki have not won once (0% wins), while Zrinjski have won 40% of those games. At half-time the statistics suggest few goals – an average of 0.8 goals for Široki and 0.73 for Zrinjski, with clean halves at the break occurring in 73% of the hosts’ matches and 80% of the visitors’; Široki led at the break in 6 matches (40%), the visitors in 4 (27%). The second half favors the visitors: Zrinjski score an average of 1.47 goals after the break, have scored at least one goal in 87% of second halves and won the second half in 53% of cases; additionally they have 6 goals in the 76–90 minute interval, which supports turnarounds after the break. On this basis the most certain scenario is a draw at half-time and a win for the visitors at full-time – X/2 is rated 30% and is my pick; the second most likely is 2/2 (25%).