Sivasspor vs Pendikspor: match statistics

Sivasspor have drawn all 4 of their home matches so far, and both teams have identical records across their last 5 games: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss apiece. The hosts create slightly better chances at home, averaging 1.59 xG compared with Pendikspor’s 1.29 away from home, although both sides score 1.25 goals per game in these conditions. Sivasspor have the defensive edge: they concede an average of 1.25 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.25 away and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Despite this advantage, the hosts’ failure to win at home and the fact that both teams have recorded 3 draws in their last 5 league games make a draw the most likely single result.

Both teams have seen goals at both ends in 75% of their matches this season, well above the league average of 53%. Sivasspor have scored in every match so far, while Pendikspor have yet to keep a clean sheet, strongly supporting the hosts’ chances of finding the net. The visitors average 1.25 goals per match, while Sivasspor concede an average of 1.0, making a Pendikspor goal a realistic prospect too. In their last five matches, Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 100% of games, compared with 60% for Pendikspor, although the visitors’ modest average of just 0.8 goals scored calls for caution. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the stronger pick, but the visitors’ recent lack of goals limits confidence in the prediction.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals: this line was surpassed in 75% of Sivasspor’s matches and 100% of Pendikspor’s matches in the season data provided. The hosts score an average of 1.25 goals and create chances worth 1.71 xG, while the visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. Pendikspor also score an average of 1.25 goals, while Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their matches, so the visitors are capable of contributing to the scoreline. The 2.5 line is less certain: it was surpassed in 25% of the hosts’ matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches, and Pendikspor’s last five games have produced no more than two goals. Therefore, with a forecast of 2.95 total goals, Over 1.5 goals offers a clearer edge than the higher lines.

In their last five matches, both teams were drawing at half-time on three occasions, making a level score after 45 minutes the most likely starting point. Sivasspor’s higher average xG—1.71 compared with Pendikspor’s 1.29—and their advantage in shots on target, 5.25 to 3.25 per match, support a full-time win for Sivasspor. The difference could emerge after the break, as Pendikspor concede an average of 1.5 goals in second halves, while Sivasspor score 0.75 and have not lost any of their four such halves in the season data. The visitors have been trailing at half-time in 50% of these matches, so a home lead at the break remains a significant alternative. However, since a half-time draw occurred in 60% of both teams’ last five matches, and Pendikspor’s weaker second halves favour the hosts, I’m backing a draw at half-time and a Sivasspor win at full-time.