SJK vs HJK: match statistics

I predict an HJK win: the visitors sit 3rd while SJK are 11th; HJK have 4 wins in their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals in that period, whereas SJK have 1 win and 6 goals. HJK average 1.88 goals per away match with shot conversion around 15%, while SJK at home average 1.25 goals per match with only 8% conversion, giving the visitors an advantage in chance conversion. Although SJK attempt more shots at home (15.88 on average) and have a higher home xG (1.83 vs. HJK’s 1.51 on the road), that creation does not translate into goals due to low conversion and poorer form. Defensively HJK are more stable — conceding 1.13 goals per away match on average and only 4 goals conceded in the last 5, whereas SJK have conceded 8 in their last 5 and 1.38 goals per home match, so I predict an away win.

The statistics send mixed signals: season BTTS rate is 33% for SJK and 50% for HJK versus a league average of 52%, but in the last 5 matches SJK has 60% BTTS compared to 40% for HJK. The case for No BTTS is supported by HJK’s form and defense — HJK scores 1.88 goals away seasonally and 2.0 in the last 5, while conceding only 0.8 goals on average in those five, whereas SJK has just 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in their last 5. SJK keeps a clean sheet in 44% of home games, and HJK also has a higher conversion rate (15% vs 11% for SJK), increasing the likelihood that HJK will score while SJK may fail to convert their chances. xG shows a moderate balance (xG_for 1.56 for SJK vs 1.51 for HJK), but SJK allows 1.56 xG at home versus 1.35 xG conceded by HJK away, which together with form leads me to back No BTTS (No Goal / clean sheet expected).

Expected goals in this match are around 3.00 (home 1.46, away 1.54), indicating a significant chance of at least two goals. HJK scores an average of 1.88 goals per game and their matches feature 88% over 1.5, while SJK at home has 56% of matches with over 1.5 goals; together this justifies an approximate 80% rating for Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches HJK averaged 2.0 goals (10 in 5), and SJK conceded an average of 1.6 goals (8 in 5), which raises the probability of Over 2.5 to about 58%. The share of matches with over 3.5 goals is low (SJK 33%, HJK 25%), so the strongest and safest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is HJK leading at the break and HJK winning at full-time (2/2) — I assign this a 30% probability, because in the last 5 matches HJK led at the break in 80% of cases (4 of 5) and won 80% of the fixtures (4 of 5). HJK has a seasonal goals-per-game average of 1.88 versus SJK’s 1.44 and a higher finishing efficiency: shot conversion rate 15% versus 11%, with very similar xG (1.51 for HJK vs 1.56 for SJK), which suggests that given comparable chances the away side converts more often. SJK at home has a seasonal win rate of 56% and 1.89 points per game, but the hosts’ last 5 home matches show only a 20% win rate and a first-half goals average of 0.2 versus HJK’s 1.0 in the last 5, so the home advantage is currently limited. Therefore I also assign a significant probability to a draw at half-time with a later HJK turnaround to win (X/2 25%), 12% to a draw/draw, and smaller probabilities to scenarios where the home side leads at half-time (a combined 22%).