SK Poltava vs Hirnyk: match statistics

Hirnyk is the favorite in this match due to a clear advantage in the table and goal output: the visitors sit sixth with 11 wins and 43 goals scored, while SK Poltava are 16th with only 2 wins and 20 goals. Recent form over the last five matches also favors Hirnyk — the visitors scored 12 goals and average 1.8 points per game, winning 3 of 5, whereas SK scored 4 goals, failed to win any and average 0.4 points per game. In attack and quality of chances Hirnyk averages 10.83 shots and 3.08 on target away, with a conversion rate of 12% and xG 1.21, while SK at home records 8 shots, 2.5 on target, 9% conversion and xG 0.9. Defensively the hosts perform worse — SK concedes 2.5 goals per home game on average (63 conceded this season) and has only 8% clean sheets, whereas Hirnyk concedes 1.58 away and maintains 25% clean sheets. Considering the goal difference (43–20), PPG in the last 5 matches (1.8–0.4) and the hosts’ weaker defense, I assign a 65% chance to Hirnyk to win, 20% to a draw and 15% to an SK upset.

Seasonal BTTS rates show 62% for SK Poltava and 50% for Hirnyk, yielding a baseline around 56% for both teams to score. In the last 5 matches SK Poltava has only 40% BTTS and averages 0.8 goals for with 2.4 conceded, while Hirnyk has 60% BTTS and averages 2.4 goals for with 2.2 conceded, so the visitors are notably in scoring form. Seasonal xG are 1.63 for SK Poltava versus 1.91 xG allowed by Hirnyk, and Hirnyk has xG 1.21 versus 1.53 xG allowed by SK Poltava, indicating both sides create and concede chances. Additionally clean sheets are rare (SK 23% and Hirnyk 25%), and SK Poltava home matches finish Over 2.5 goals in 77% of cases, which reinforces the BTTS scenario. Considering this and weighing seasonal and recent form, I assess BTTS probability at 66% (yes) vs 34% (no) and tip "yes".

Calculated expected goals are 3.14 (1.77 for SK Poltava vs 1.37 for Hirnyk), derived from xG: home 1.63 and away 1.21 and opponents' conceded xG 1.91 and 1.53. SK Poltava scores on average 2.15 goals at home and records 5.69 shots on target versus 3.08 for Hirnyk; the home side’s shot conversion of 16% versus 12% for the visitors increases scoring potential. Over statistics show the home team has 77% of matches Over 2.5 goals (92% Over 1.5), while the away team has 58% and 67% respectively, and the BTTS rate is 62% vs 50%. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — I assess its probability at around 92%, while Over 2.5 I estimate at ~72%, and Over 3.5 at ~36%. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5, because the high >1.5 occurrence for the home side (92%) and the combined xG of 3.14 provide a clear edge for this market.

Strong signal that the home side will lead at the break: SK Poltava led at half-time in 69% of matches (9 times), scoring on average 1.38 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.38, while Hirnyk averages 0.75 goals and concedes 0.75 in the first half. Over the full match the hosts also perform better: they score 2.15 goals per game versus the visitors' 1.25, have higher xG (1.63 vs 1.21) and more shots on target (5.69 vs 3.08), which suggests an offensive advantage for Poltava. Form must be taken into account: Poltava have not recorded a win in their last 5 matches (0% wins) and led at the break in 0% of those 5 games, whereas Hirnyk have 60% wins in their last 5 and led at half-time in 80% of those fixtures. Considering the season-long dominance of the home side in the first half (1.38 HT goals and 69% leads), but also their poor recent form, the most likely scenario is the home team leading at half-time and SK Poltava winning the match, so I assign a 46% probability to the 1/1 scenario. Alternative variants are a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1 15%) and HT/FT draw (X/X 9%) as more cautious options due to form volatility.