SK Poltava vs Polessya: match statistics

Polessya is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd and win 80% of away matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 0.7 per game, while SK Poltava are 16th and have only a 9% home win rate, scoring 0.82 and conceding 2.36. The visitors create better chances — Polessya’s average away xG is 1.4 versus the home side’s 0.96 xG, and they average 11.8 shots and 4.1 on target per match compared to SK’s 8.55 and 2.64; a higher conversion rate of 19% versus 10% increases Polessya’s efficiency. Form trends confirm the advantage: Polessya have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (average 2 points per match), while SK have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 with a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses (average 0.2 points per match). Defensively the gap is significant — Polessya keep 60% clean sheets away and concede 0.7 on average, whereas SK at home have only 9% clean sheets and concede 2.36 on average; the goal difference stands at +15 versus -17. Based on this I tip the away win, assessing probabilities at 75% for Polessya, 15% for a draw and 10% for SK Poltava.

Statistics favor No BTTS: SK Poltava has a seasonal BTTS rate of 25% and 20% in the last 5 matches, while Polessya has a seasonal BTTS of 30% (though 60% in the last 5), indicating that over the long term both teams rarely produce BTTS. Polessya has a clear offensive edge — averaging 2.2 goals this season and 1.8 in the last 5, with xG of 1.55 over the last five and a shot conversion of 19%, so their goal-scoring is highly likely. SK Poltava struggles to score: 1.25 on average this season and only 0.6 in the last 5, with a low conversion rate of 9%, although their defense has been leaking recently (15 conceded in the last 5, i.e. 3.0 avg, and xG against 1.95 in the last 5). Polessya additionally often keeps a clean sheet (60% seasonally) and concedes an average of 0.8 goals in the last 5 (4 total), which limits the chances that SK Poltava will break them down. As a result the strongest signal is a single scorer (Polessya), so I assign 70% to No BTTS and 30% to BTTS - Yes.

Based on xG, expected goals are 1.30 for SK Poltava (xG_for 1.51 vs opponent xG_against 1.09) and 1.28 for Polessya (xG_for 1.40 vs hosts xG_against 1.16), totaling 2.58 goals. Polessya averages 2.20 goals per game versus SK Poltava’s 1.25, and the hosts have conceded 56 goals this season compared to 15 conceded by Polessya, indicating a clear offensive advantage for the visitors. The finishing efficiency gap is large: Polessya has a conversion rate of 19% versus the hosts’ 9%, and in the last 5 matches Poltava have conceded 15 goals while Polessya scored 9, increasing the likelihood of further goals. Based on the combined xG of 2.58, seasonal over 1.5 percentages (67% for Poltava and 80% for Polessya) and the hosts’ poor defensive form, I give a strong signal for Over 1.5 and recommend playing Over 1.5 as the best line.

Polessya are clear favourites: they have an 80% win rate this season versus SK Poltava’s 42%, and in the last 5 matches they have won 60% while the hosts have not recorded a win in their last five (0%). The visitors regularly lead at the break — season-wide they led at half-time in 70% of matches, and in the last 5 they led at the break in 60% — and their average goals at half-time is 1.4 compared to 0.2 for the hosts over the last 5. Although the hosts’ expected xG is 1.51 versus the visitors’ 1.4, Polessya have a significantly better shot conversion rate (19% vs 9%) and a higher goals-per-game average (2.2 vs 1.25), which increases the likelihood that the visitors will close out the match as winners. Therefore the safest pick is the visitors to lead at half-time and win at full-time (2/2) — I assign this a 50% probability; the second option is a half-time draw and an away win (X/2) at 20%; the third is the hosts leading at the break and a turnaround by the visitors (1/2) at 10%. The remaining combinations (e.g. 1/1 = 6%, X/X = 4%) are less likely given the visitors’ superior finishing and first-half statistics.