SK Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk: match statistics

Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favorites: they have 19 wins this season versus just 2 for SK Poltava and sit 1st while the hosts are 16th with 18 defeats. The offensive gap is significant — the visitors have scored 61 goals this season, the hosts only 23; away Shakhtar averages 2.08 goals per game, while SK Poltava at home averages 0.92 and fail to score in 46% of home matches. The hosts’ defense looks poor: SK concedes 2.54 goals per game at home and has a -21 goal difference, whereas Shakhtar concedes only 0.69 away and has a +18 goal difference. Chance quality favors the visitors — Shakhtar’s away xG is 1.8 versus 0.93 for the hosts, average on-target shots 5.69 vs 2.77 and shot conversion 14% vs 11% for the hosts; the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 54% of away matches. In the last 5 matches SK scored 7 and conceded 13 with a record of 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, while Shakhtar in that period have 3 wins and 2 losses with a 9-8 goal record, so I predict an away win.

I predict BTTS - Yes, because in the last 5 matches the BTTS rate is 60% for SK Poltava and 100% for Shakhtar, which is a strong form signal for both sides. Seasonal indicators are mixed — seasonal BTTS is 31% (home) versus 46% (away) against a league level of 42% — however both teams create chances: SK Poltava scores on average 2.62 goals per match (xG 2.16), and Shakhtar 2.08 goals (xG 1.80). Although the hosts have 69% of season matches with a clean sheet expected, in the last 5 they conceded on average 2.6 goals (13 conceded), and the visitors conceded 1.6 (8 conceded), which increases the risk of both teams scoring. Additionally average shots 16.54 vs 15.31 and shots on target 6.69 vs 5.69 with conversion rates 16% and 14% show that both teams have realistic scoring chances, therefore I rate BTTS at 65% (Yes) versus 35% (No).

Based on xG and defensive data I project total expected goals at 2.77: home xG 2.16 against away defensive xG conceded 0.82 yields about 1.49 expected goals for SK Poltava, while away xG 1.80 against home defensive xG conceded 0.76 yields about 1.28 for Shakhtar Donetsk. A Poisson distribution with mean 2.77 translates to roughly a 76% chance of Over 1.5, 52% for Over 2.5 and 30% for Over 3.5, so the model favors a result with at least two goals. Seasonal stats support this direction: both teams have Over 1.5 in 69% of matches, with Over 2.5 occurring in 62% of home matches and 54% of away matches. In the last 5 games the hosts show suppressed xG (0.74), while the visitors have 1.68 xG, which slightly lowers expectations for the home form but does not negate the Over signal. The strongest play is Over at the 1.5 line given the expected 2.77 goals and high seasonal rates of matches above 1.5.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side average 0.85 goals to the break, the visitors 0.92, and a clean sheet at half-time is maintained in 85% of SK Poltava’s matches and 77% of Shakhtar’s, with a half-time draw occurring for both teams in 38% of fixtures. After the break the statistics favour the hosts — SK Poltava record 1.77 goals in the second half vs. 1.15 for the visitors, score in the second half in 92% of matches and “win” the second half in 85% of cases, which raises the chance of a turnaround. Seasonal indicators also belong to the hosts: 2.62 goals per game vs. 2.08 for Shakhtar, xG 2.16 vs. 1.80 and shot conversion 16% vs. 14%, and additionally SK Poltava have scored 13 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 6 for the visitors. Although the hosts have not won in their last five matches (0% wins) and the visitors have a 60% win rate, the combination of a high share of half-time draws (clean sheets) and a strong second half from the hosts provides the strongest signal for a Half-Time draw and SK Poltava to win Full-Time (X/1).