Skënderbeu Korçë vs Dinamo Tirana: match statistics

Skënderbeu Korçë hold a slight edge in current form: they have scored 8 goals, conceded 4 and collected 8 points in their last five matches, while Dinamo Tirana have earned 7 points. The hosts have lost only 1 of their last five games, with their run including two consecutive victories at the start of this period. Dinamo have also scored 8 goals in their five appearances, but have defended slightly more effectively, conceding just 3, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested match. In the current season, Skënderbeu drew their opening game 2:2, whereas Dinamo lost their opener 0:1 and failed to score. With a very limited sample size, home advantage and the slightly higher points tally from the last five matches support a cautious pick in favour of the hosts.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 40% of Skënderbeu’s last five matches and just 20% of Dinamo Tirana’s. Both sides are also difficult to break down: the hosts conceded an average of 0.8 goals per match in this run, while the visitors conceded only 0.6, meaning they allowed just 7 goals across 10 appearances combined. Their recent attacking returns of 1.6 goals per match for each side, along with an xG of 1.12 for Skënderbeu and 1.23 for Dinamo, provide grounds to expect at least one team to score, but do not confirm goals at both ends. In addition, the league BTTS rate is only 40%, with an average of 2.0 goals per match, which favors outcomes featuring a clean sheet for one of the teams. The most likely scenario, therefore, is that at least one team will fail to score.

The last five meetings for both teams produced an average of 1.6 goals scored per match, while their defenses conceded only 0.8 and 0.6 goals, respectively. The average xG over this period points to moderate attacking potential: 1.12 for the home side and 1.23 for the visitors, with a combined projection of around 2.20 goals. Only 40% of each team’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, while the league is also averaging just 2.0 goals per match, with 40% of games finishing above 2.5. In addition, both teams scored in only 20% of the visitors’ last five appearances, further limiting the risk of an open game. The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as the data clearly supports a scenario with a maximum of three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Skënderbeu win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and did not trail in any of them after 45 minutes. Their defence conceded no goals before half-time during this period, while Dinamo conceded an average of 0.2 goals in the first half. After the break, Skënderbeu score an average of 1.0 goals, and their matches produce 1.8 goals on average in the second half, compared with 1.2 in Dinamo’s games. The hosts also have the more favourable recent full-time record: they lost 20% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Dinamo. Both teams average 1.6 goals scored across their last five matches, but home advantage and the hosts’ greater attacking activity after the interval slightly tilt the forecast in their favour.