Skënderbeu Korçë vs Tirana: match statistics

Tirana have the clearly better overall trend: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that span, while Skënderbeu have failed to win any of their five games, scoring just 4 goals. However, the hosts have been poor at home, having yet to score, losing their only match so far and averaging just 35% possession. The visitors also have problems away from home, losing both matches and conceding an average of 3 goals, which keeps the risk of a draw high. Nevertheless, Tirana create chances worth an average xG of 1.07 away from home, while Skënderbeu’s defense allows opponents an xG of 1.57 and has yet to keep a clean sheet. The visitors’ advantage is primarily based on their significantly more effective recent run, although the match is expected to be closely contested.

Skënderbeu have yet to concede at home and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far, while Tirana average just 0.5 goals away from home. The hosts allow opponents only 0.69 xG, which significantly limits Tirana’s chances of finding a breakthrough. On the other hand, the hosts’ recent five-match form is not particularly strong offensively, as they average 0.8 goals scored, so the most realistic scenario is a win for one side without a goal from the opposition, rather than necessarily a high-scoring game. However, the last five matches give Skënderbeu a BTTS rate of 60% and Tirana 40%, meaning the possibility of both teams scoring remains significant. Despite the league-wide BTTS average of 67%, the combination of the hosts’ highly solid defence and Tirana’s weak away record slightly favours BTTS - No.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have had 100% of their matches this season finish with at least 2 goals. Tirana concede an average of 3.0 goals away from home, while their defensive xG against is a high 1.84, giving Skënderbeu clear space to create chances. On the other hand, the hosts allow opponents just 0.69 xG, so expectations for Tirana’s attack should be limited despite their average of 1.8 goals scored in their last 5 matches. Skënderbeu’s last five matches produced an average of 2.2 total goals, compared with 3.2 for Tirana, while the league average is 2.87 goals. The projected total of 2.40 goals points to a solid likelihood of at least two goals, but the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 lines are less certain due to the hosts’ weaker recent finishing, with Skënderbeu scoring just 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 games.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and a Tirana win after the match: Skënderbeu were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring only 0.4 goals before the break during that period. Tirana led at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, averaging 1.0 first-half goals, and have the better current form, with 3 wins and an average of 1.8 goals per match compared with the hosts’ 0 wins and 0.8 goals. After the break, Skënderbeu concede an average of 1.2 goals, winning the second half in 0% of their last five appearances, while Tirana score 0.8 goals after half-time and lose that period in only 20% of matches. Additionally, although the hosts won their only home match of the season so far by 4-0, the sample is very small, and their current dldll run clearly reduces the weight of that result. The X/2 scenario best combines Skënderbeu’s cautious start with Tirana’s clear advantage in current scoring form and second-half performances.