Slaven Koprivnica vs Gorica: match statistics

Both teams have lost three matches this season, but Gorica sit higher in 8th place, while Slaven are 9th. The hosts have won twice in their last five matches and scored 6 goals, but their defence remains highly vulnerable: at home, they concede an average of as many as 4 goals per match, with opponents recording an xG of 2.44. Gorica have also yet to keep a clean sheet away from home, but they allow opponents significantly lower-quality chances, with average xG against of 1.24, while they themselves generate 1.76 xG compared to Slaven’s 1.55. The visitors also average 15 shots away from home, 3 more than the hosts, which could enable them to exploit Slaven’s weakest area: their defence. The lack of clean sheets on both sides and an average of 5 goals in Slaven’s home matches suggest an open game, but the superior chance-quality profile gives Gorica a slight edge.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the poor defensive performances of both teams: Slaven concede an average of 2.0 goals, while Gorica concede as many as 3.0, with neither side recording a clean sheet in any match. Gorica create significantly more in attack, averaging 1.76 xG, 15 shots and 4 shots on target per match, while Slaven’s defence allows opponents an average of 2.26 xG. The hosts score just 0.5 goals per game this season, but their last five matches have produced an average of 1.2 goals, while Gorica conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period. Recent BTTS form is more cautious, standing at 20% for Slaven and 40% for Gorica; however, the very high number of chances allowed by both defences, combined with Gorica’s 100% season BTTS record, marginally support a goal for each team.

The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals, as at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of the matches played by both teams so far. Slaven concede an average of 2.0 goals at home, while Gorica concede as many as 3.0 away, with neither team having kept a clean sheet yet. Gorica also create significantly more chances: their average xG stands at 1.76 compared with Slaven’s 1.10, while their average number of shots is 15.0 versus 8.5. The last five matches point to vulnerabilities in both defenses, which conceded 1.8 goals per game, while Slaven allowed opponents an xG of 2.58. The 2.5 line also has merit, but with a projected total of 3.0 goals, Over 1.5 remains the safer and most likely option.

The strongest scenario is Gorica leading at the break and winning the match, as Slaven have been behind at half-time in 100% of their home fixtures so far, failing to score a single first-half goal. The hosts have conceded an average of 1.5 goals in the opening 45 minutes, while in their last five matches their half-time record stood at 0 scored and as many as 2.0 conceded goals per game. Gorica possess greater attacking potential: their average xG is 1.76 compared with Slaven’s 1.10, and they average 15 shots and 4 on target, versus 8.5 and 3 for the hosts. Slaven’s defence allows an average xG of 2.26, which aligns well with the visitors’ superiority in chance creation, even though Gorica also remain vulnerable defensively. After the break, both teams drew the second half in 100% of the available matches, making it more likely that Gorica will preserve an early lead than that Slaven will complete a turnaround.