Slovan Liberec vs Teplice: match statistics

Teplice are the favorites in this match: in their last 5 fixtures the visitors recorded 5 wins and scored 13 goals (avg. 2.6 per game), while Slovan Liberec has only 1 win and 4 losses, scoring 4 goals (0.8 per game). Defensive differential also favors Teplice — Slovan conceded 8 goals in their last five matches (1.6 per game), and Teplice just 4 (0.8 per game). Based on points from the last 5 matches the visitors hold a clear advantage: Teplice average 3.0 points per game versus 0.6 for Slovan. Over the full season both teams have 1 win and 3 goals, so recent trends are decisive and strongly favor Teplice. Available stats do not include xG or average shots per game, so my assessment of chance quality is based primarily on goals and points from the last 5 matches. Given the dominance in attack (13 vs 4 goals) and superior defensive stability, I predict an away win.

The primary signal for BTTS is the strong league trend and the hosts' profile: in the Czech league BTTS occurs in 88% of matches, and Slovan has 100% of their season fixtures with both teams scoring. Teplice are in excellent form — 5 wins in a row and 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 goals per game), which substantially increases the likelihood they will score. Slovan have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches (0.8/game) but conceded 8 goals (1.6/game), so the hosts still allow opposition goals. xG over the last 5 matches is comparable: Slovan xG_for 1.47 vs xG_against 1.75, Teplice xG_for 1.29 vs xG_against 1.67 — both teams create over 1.2 xG and generate chances. Considering the league average of 3.88 goals per game and the fact Slovan have 100% of matches over 2.5 with BTTS, I pick BTTS - Yes as the more likely scenario (80% vs 20%).

Based on xG I project 1.54 goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.29 for Teplice, totaling 2.83 goals. With that mean, a Poisson distribution estimates roughly a 77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 54% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 32% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Supporting data: Slovan at home scores an average of 3.0 goals per match and has 100% of matches over 2.5 (seasonOver25Percentage_home=100), while Teplice have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 2.6 per match) and are in form with 5 wins. The league averages 3.88 goals per match and 88% of matches over 2.5, so the broader context also favors more goals. For these reasons the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5) with approximately a 77% probability.

Slovan Liberec score an average of 3.0 goals and concede 1.0 goal per home match, with an xG of 1.54 versus 1.50 for opponents, indicating the hosts’ offensive edge with a moderate risk of conceding. At half-time Liberec led in 1 of 1 home matches (100%), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded by the break, so a 1-0 lead at 45 minutes is the most likely HT scenario. Teplice show gaps in season-long away metrics (season values equal to 0), but in their last five matches overall they have won all five and average 2.6 goals per game (form ‘wwwww’), giving them genuine potential to attempt a turnaround after the break. However, given that the hosts win 100% of home matches and collect an average of 3.0 points per home game, the strongest signal is Liberec maintaining their lead and winning HT/FT in regulation. Additionally, 100% of Liberec’s home matches have seen both teams score, so the most probable outcome is the home side leading at half-time and ultimately winning, most likely 2-1 or 3-1.