Sogdiana vs Andijan: match statistics

Sogdiana come into this fixture with the stronger recent winning streak, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and scoring 9 goals during that period, although their defence conceded as many as 10. At home, the hosts average 2.00 goals with an xG of 1.56, but they also concede a very high 2.57 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in just 14% of their outings. Andijan sit higher in the table and have conceded only 16 goals across the season compared with Sogdiana’s 33, while away from home they allow an average of 1.43 goals against an xG against of 1.35. The visitors have been consistent recently, recording 2 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, but they have failed to score in 43% of away fixtures, which limits their chances of taking all three points. The clash between Sogdiana’s potent but highly vulnerable home advantage and Andijan’s more solid defensive organisation points to a closely contested match ending in a draw.

Current form clearly supports goals from both sides: BTTS - Yes occurred in 80% of Sogdiana’s last 5 matches and in 60% of Andijan’s games. During this period, Sogdiana averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded 2.0, while Andijan scored as many as 2.8 goals per match and conceded 1.2. However, the hosts have recorded clean sheets in 50% of their matches this season and have a historical BTTS rate of just 38%, which limits the strength of the pick and indicates a genuine risk that the opposition may fail to score. Despite this, Andijan creates an average of 1.39 xG, while Sogdiana’s defence has allowed 1.63 xG across its last five appearances. Therefore, the scenario in which both teams score is slightly more likely.

Sogdiana average 1.50 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded at home, while Andijan score 1.43 goals away from home, supporting a 2–3-goal scenario. The xG model also points to a balanced, though not excessively open, contest: 1.49 xG for the hosts versus 1.35 xG conceded by the visitors, and 1.39 xG for the visitors compared with 1.16 xG conceded by Sogdiana. The 3.5 line went Under in 87% of Sogdiana’s matches and 71% of Andijan’s, while neither team conceded more than three goals in a single match this season. Although 80% of Sogdiana’s last five matches featured at least three goals, their opponents conceded only 1.2 goals per game during this period. The strength of the season-long data and the hosts’ solid defensive record offers the greatest value on Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sogdiana win at full-time, as the hosts have been level at the break in 63% of their matches, while their first-half average is just 0.63 goals. Sogdiana concede only 0.25 goals per match before the break and keep a clean sheet in the first half in 88% of their outings, whereas Andijan average 0.43 goals scored during this period. After half-time, the hosts clearly increase their advantage: they average 1.13 goals scored and concede only 0.50, winning 63% of second halves. Andijan concede an average of 1.00 goal after the break and have a weaker season-long record overall: 1.14 points per match compared with Sogdiana’s 1.63, and a 29% win rate compared with 50%. However, the visitors are dangerous in their current form, averaging 2.8 goals across their last five matches, so HT/FT variants featuring an Andijan win or a full-time draw retain a significant share of the probability.