Sol de América vs Benjamin Aceval: match statistics

Sol de América are unbeaten at home; 71% of their home matches end in a draw. They keep clean sheets in 57% of home games and concede just 0.43 goals per home game on average. Benjamin Aceval is the team leader (1st) with 23 goals this season and 11 in the last 5 matches; away he averages 2.29 goals and has never failed to score in an away match. Sol de América generate 13.57 shots and xG 1.77 at home, but convert that into only 0.86 goals per match with a conversion rate around 6%, whereas Benjamin posts lower xG away (1.43) but a much higher conversion of 21% and averages 4.86 shots on target. In the last 5 matches the home side averages 2.2 points per game and are unbeaten (3 wins, 2 draws), while the visitors average 2.0 points per game (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), giving the hosts a marginal form edge. In summary: Sol de América’s solid home defence (0.43 goals conceded) versus Benjamin Aceval’s high away efficiency (2.29 goals) points to a low-scoring draw; therefore a draw appears the most likely outcome.

Benjamin Aceval has a seasonal BTTS of 71% and 100% BTTS in the last 5 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9 in that period, which clearly indicates consistency in both attack and defensive vulnerability. Sol de América keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home games and has a seasonal BTTS of 33%, scoring on average 1.17 and conceding 0.67, so the hosts often defend access to goal. xG and shot stats show the visitors' efficiency advantage: Benjamin generates 1.43 xG, averages 4.86 on-target shots and has a conversion rate of 21%, while the hosts concede 1.42 xG — this suggests the visitors have realistic chances to score despite solid defending. Additionally, the league BTTS level is 56%, and the combination of the visitors' high seasonal BTTS (71%) and their 56% of matches over 2.5 with BTTS makes the both-teams-to-score scenario more likely than a clean sheet for either side. On that basis I pick BTTS - Yes and assess probability 75% for Yes and 25% for No.

Average xG suggests about 2.92 expected goals in the match: 1.49 for Sol de América and 1.43 for Benjamin Aceval (total 2.92). Benjamin Aceval is driving the Over market – they score on average 2.29 goals per game, have 71% of matches Over 2.5 this season and 100% Over 1.5, and in the last 5 games they scored 11 goals (2.2 avg) with 80% of matches >2.5. Sol de América concede only 0.67 goals at home on average and keep 50% clean sheets, which reduces the risk of a very high scoreline, but their xG_for 1.49 and 11.5 shots indicate they also create chances. Given Benjamin’s high efficiency (21% conversion rate and 4.86 shots on target) and the visitors’ 100% season Over1.5, the strongest signal is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (~63%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~32%).

Benjamin Aceval has a more pronounced attack: they score on average 2.29 goals per match versus Sol de América’s 1.17 and hold a 71% win rate this season compared to the home side’s 50%, which places the away team as the favorite. At Half-Time however Sol de América draw at home in as many as 83% of matches (drawingAtHT_home = 83%), while the visitors are often trailing at the break (trailingAtHTPercentage_away = 43%), so the most likely Half-Time state is a draw. After the break Benjamin Aceval score on average 1.57 goals (scored_2hg_avg_away = 1.57) versus the home side’s 0.67 (scored_2hg_avg_home = 0.67) and have a higher shot conversion of 21% versus 10%, with more on-target shots (4.86 vs 3.17), which increases the visitors’ chances of a turnaround. Overall xG are similar (xG 1.49 home vs 1.43 away), so Benjamin Aceval’s edge stems mainly from finishing efficiency rather than greater chance creation. Therefore the clearest signal is a draw at Half-Time and an away victory at Full-Time (X/2), while 1/2 and X/X remain relevant alternatives.