Sol de América vs Fernando de la Mora: match statistics

Sol de América sit 5th, while Fernando de la Mora are 12th, and the hosts have lost just 3 matches all season, recording 7 wins and 13 draws. At home, Sol de América remain unbeaten, yet as many as 82% of their matches have ended in draws; they score just 0.82 goals per game despite creating chances worth an average of 1.72 xG. Away from home, the visitors concede 1.45 goals per match and have a -4 goal difference, but their recent form is similar to that of the hosts: both teams have collected 8 points from their previous five matches. Sol de América’s defence is clearly more solid, averaging 0.55 goals conceded at home and keeping a clean sheet in 45% of matches, which should limit a visiting side scoring 1.09 goals away from home. A low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome, as the hosts’ defensive superiority and higher quality of chances created are offset by their very poor finishing and strong tendency to draw at home.

The seasonal BTTS rates stand at 64% for Sol de América and 55% for Fernando de la Mora, providing a slight signal for goals from both sides compared with the league average of 56%. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in just 9% of their matches, while the visitors concede an average of 1.45 goals per game, meaning both teams have favorable conditions to find the net. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: Sol de América average 1.68 xG, while Fernando de la Mora average 1.44, with the opponents’ xG conceded standing at 1.39 and 1.43, respectively. Caution is warranted based on the hosts’ last five matches, in which BTTS landed in only 40% of cases and the team scored 4 goals in total. Despite this weaker run, the visitors have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five games and average 1.4 goals scored, so the scenario with both teams finding the net remains more likely.

Both teams have a very consistent profile of matches finishing Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 73% of Sol de América and Fernando de la Mora matches. The hosts score an average of 1.00 goals, while the visitors average 1.09, with both defences conceding just 0.60 and 0.80 goals per match respectively over the last five rounds. The chance-creation potential is slightly higher, as the hosts’ xG stands at 1.68 and the visitors’ at 1.44; however, Sol de América’s conversion rate is only 7%, limiting the risk of a high-scoring game. The Under 3.5 goals line is also supported by league data, where the average number of goals is 2.59 and only 27% of matches involving either team went over the 3.5-goal line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sol de América win after the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 55% of their games, compared with as many as 64% for Fernando de la Mora. Both teams tend to start cautiously: the hosts average 0.27 goals before half-time, while the visitors average 0.36, and in their last five matches, a half-time draw occurred in 60% and 80% of cases, respectively. After the break, Sol de América average 0.73 goals and win the second half in 36% of matches, while the visitors also score 0.73 goals but lose this period in 45% of games and concede 1.09 goals during it. The hosts also have a higher average xG, 1.68 compared with 1.44, and register more shots, 13.73 to 10.91, which strengthens the likelihood of them turning a closely contested match in their favour after half-time.