Solihull Moors vs Boreham Wood: match statistics

The favorite is Boreham Wood: the visitors sit 4th versus Solihull’s 14th, have won 24 matches this season compared to the hosts’ 12 wins, and have scored 87 goals versus 63. The form gap is clear — in the last 5 matches Boreham Wood scored 12 goals with a 3-1-1 record (avg. 2 points per game), while Solihull scored only 3 goals and are 1-2-2 (avg. 1 point per game). Defensively the visitors also look stronger: Boreham Wood concedes 1.43 goals per away match, while Solihull concedes 1.81 at home; xG shows 1.77 for the visitors vs 1.64 for the hosts, with xG against 1.45 for Boreham Wood versus 1.73 for Solihull. Additionally Boreham Wood have higher possession (57% vs 49%), better shot efficiency (conversion rate 16% vs 15% and 5.95 shots on target avg vs 5.43) and are less likely to finish without scoring (10% vs 24%), all boosting their chances of taking points. Based on these specifics (87 vs 63 goals this season, 12 vs 3 goals in the last 5 matches and better defence 1.43 vs 1.81) I predict an away win.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Solihull Moors 67% and Boreham Wood 62% vs league average 56%, favoring a Goal/Goal outcome. Seasonal goals averages are 2.1 scored and 1.14 conceded for Solihull, and 2.05 scored and 1.43 conceded for Boreham, with xG 1.89 vs 1.77 and opponents' xG 1.35 vs 1.45, so both sides create and concede chances. In the last 5 matches Solihull have scored only 3 goals (0.6 per game) with BTTS 40%, while Boreham have scored 12 goals (2.4 per game) with BTTS 60%, suggesting the visitors have greater scoring form. Additionally, on-target shots 6.38 vs 5.95, high percentages of matches over 2.5 goals (Solihull 67% and Boreham 76%) and low percentages of clean-sheet matches (Solihull 5% and Boreham 10%) strengthen the BTTS signal. Considering this I rate BTTS - Yes at 66% and No Goal at 34%, driven by dominant seasonal BTTS 67%/62%, solid xG 1.89/1.77 and the visitors' recent scoring form.

I estimate Solihull Moors will score about 1.67 goals and Boreham Wood about 1.56, totaling 3.23 goals. Seasonal averages are 2.10 goals scored by hosts and 2.05 by visitors, with xG at 1.89 for Solihull vs 1.77 for Boreham and xG against 1.35 (home) and 1.45 (away), which supports a higher total. Both teams have 90% of matches with over 1.5 goals this season, and Over 2.5 occurs in 67% of home matches and 76% of away matches; in the last 5 games Boreham scored 12 goals (2.4 avg) while Solihull only 3 (0.6 avg), which still points to a match with multiple goals. Additionally both sides create many chances (on average 13.95 and 12.86 shots, and 6.38 and 5.95 shots on target) and the BTTS rate is 67% and 62%, so the strongest signal is the over 1.5 line (90% probability) and that is the option I recommend.

Season-long metrics favor Solihull: the hosts average 2.24 points per match and a 71% win rate over the season, and they score on average 1.14 goals by half-time versus Boreham Wood’s 0.90. However, in the last five fixtures the picture clearly favors the visitors — Boreham Wood have won 60% of those matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game compared to Solihull’s 0.6, and they have scored 10 first-half goals in five games (2.0 per match) versus the hosts’ 3 first-half goals (0.6). Additionally, the share of games with at least one goal by half-time is high (81% for the hosts and 86% for the visitors), which increases the chance of a lead at the break by the side that has been more active recently. Given Boreham Wood’s strong scoring momentum in the last five matches (2.4 goals per game) and Solihull’s poorer form (0.6 goals per game over the last five), the most likely scenario among those presented is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2).