Soroksár SC vs Budafoki MTE: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Soroksár SC sit 13th vs Budafoki 15th and in the last 5 matches have a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (avg. 1.0 point per game), while Budafoki have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (avg. 0.2 points per game). The hosts have scored 32 goals this season vs 24 for the visitors and in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 6 goals compared to Budafoki’s 3, translating to an average of 1.17 goals per home game vs 0.92 goals per away game for the visitors. Defensively Soroksár is also better at their ground — conceding on average 1.67 goals at home, while Budafoki concede 2.00 goals away; additionally the visitors have a 75% away loss rate and 50% of matches without scoring. Quality of chances indicators (xG) are almost equal: hosts xG 1.41 vs guests 1.40, but the hosts attempt more shots on average 11.75 to 10.25 and have a slightly lower share of goalless games (42% vs 50%), which favors conversion. Considering the advantage in goals scored (32 vs 24), better points form (1.0 vs 0.2) and the visitors’ poor away form, I assign the hosts a 62% chance, draw 20% and a Budafoki win 18%.

Soroksár scores on average 1.00 and concedes 1.38 per match, while Budafoki scores 0.92 and concedes 2.00, with clean sheets at 23% and 17% respectively. This season Soroksár has BTTS in 46% of matches, Budafoki in 33%, yielding a combined team average around 40% versus the league BTTS level of 48%. In the last 5 matches Soroksár produced BTTS in 80% (6 scored and 8 conceded), whereas Budafoki had BTTS in 40% (3 scored, 10 conceded). xG indicates both sides create chances: xG 1.34 for Soroksár and 1.40 for Budafoki, and Budafoki registers 4.0 shots on target versus 3.38 for Soroksár, which raises the realistic potential for goals from both teams. Considering the high average goals conceded (1.38 vs 2.00), low clean sheet rates (23%/17%) and Soroksár’s form (BTTS 80% in L5), I assess BTTS - Yes at 62% and No at 38%.

xG-based calculations show the home side produces 1.34 xG in attack while Budafoki’s defense concedes 1.65 xG — together this yields approximately 1.50 expected goals for Soroksár; similarly Budafoki have 1.40 xG in attack against 1.49 xG conceded by the hosts, i.e. about 1.45 xG. Total expected goals ≈2.95, and a Poisson model with λ≈2.95 gives ~79% probability for Over 1.5, ~57% for Over 2.5 and ~34% for Over 3.5. Seasonal stats support Over 1.5 — Soroksár have Over 1.5 in 85% of matches, Budafoki in 75% (avg ~80%) — while Over 2.5 occurs in 38% of home matches and 50% of away matches, which explains the moderate confidence for Over 2.5. Additionally both teams average 10.92 and 10.25 shots, with 3.38 and 4.00 shots on target respectively and a conversion rate of 9% (home 32 goals this season, away 24), consistent with the predicted xG and supporting an above-average goals level. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is backing the Over side at the 1.5 line; Over 2.5 is moderately likely, and Over 3.5 is less certain.

Statistics indicate a higher probability for Budafok to be leading at half-time: Soroksár were behind at half-time in 62% of matches (trailingAtHTPercentage_home = 62%), and Budafok average 0.42 goals by half-time versus 0.23 for the home side (scoredAVGHT_away = 0.42 vs scoredAVGHT_home = 0.23). Nevertheless, Soroksár produce strong second halves — on average 1.31 goals in second halves and 1.77 points gained in second halves (AVG_2hg_home = 1.31, ppg_2hg_home = 1.77), and win 54% of matches in the second half, while Budafok manage only 0.58 points and 8% second-half wins. Additionally, the hosts scored 4 goals in the 61–75 minute window, and Budafok conceded as many as 8 goals in 76–90 minutes, which strongly supports a turnaround after the break. Both teams’ xG are similar (1.34 vs 1.40), and given Soroksár’s advantage in second halves and Budafok’s weaker post-break performance, the most likely scenario is Budafok leading at the break with Soroksár winning after the final whistle (HT/FT 2/1).