Soroksár SC vs Kecskeméti TE: match statistics

Kecskeméti TE holds a clear edge this season: they are 3rd with 16 wins and 49 goals scored, while Soroksár SC sit 14th with 7 wins and 37 goals. The form gap is evident over the last 5 matches — Kecskeméti TE won 4 of 5, scoring 12 goals and averaging 2.4 points per game, whereas Soroksár SC are 2-2-1 with 6 goals and 1.6 points per game. The visitors also generate slightly more high-quality chances: average away xG is 1.44 versus home xG 1.38, with an average of 4 on-target shots for the away side compared to 3.64 for the home team and higher possession 50% vs 46%. Defensively Soroksár SC concede 1.57 goals per home match, and Kecskeméti TE concede 1.71 away, however the visitors have a higher clean sheet rate (14% vs 0%) and a lower percentage of matches without scoring (21% vs 36%), indicating greater consistency in converting their advantage. Considering the superior league position, stronger recent form and more favorable xG and on-target shot metrics, I predict an away win; estimated probabilities are Home 22%, Draw 20%, Away 58%.

Both teams give strong signals for scoring: Soroksár averages 2.13 goals per match this season and has an xG of 1.75, while Kecskeméti concedes 1.71 goals on average away, which favors a home goal. The visitors have a seasonal BTTS rate of 64% and BTTS occurred in 80% of their last 5 matches (12 goals scored in 5 matches, 2.4 avg), so Kecskeméti regularly finds the net. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches, but in the last 5 games Soroksár's BTTS was 60% and they scored 6 goals (1.2 avg), while conceding 0.8 goals on average in that period, so opponent goals are not excluded. Additionally, xG comparison shows chance creation on both sides: home xG 1.75 vs xG against the visitors 1.30, and away xG 1.44 vs xG against the hosts 0.93, which points to goals from both teams. Averaged signals (around 53.5% for the home side and 72% for the visitors) lead to a BTTS forecast: Yes 63% / No 37%, hence the selection 'yes'.

Expected xG indicates 1.53 goals for Soroksár (own xG 1.75 and opponent xG 1.30 → (1.75+1.30)/2 ≈ 1.53) and 1.19 for Kecskeméti (1.44 and 0.93 → ≈1.19), total 2.72. A Poisson model with λ=2.72 gives ~75% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~51% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~29% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Match data supports this: hosts score on average 2.13 goals per game and have 87% of matches Over 1.5, visitors 79% of such matches; hosts register 5.87 shots on target vs 4.0 for visitors and conversion 15% vs 11%. In the last 5 matches Soroksár scored 6 goals, Kecskeméti 12 goals, and the recent xG is 1.11 (home) vs 1.44 (away), which increases the risk of additional goals. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (backing the Over at the 1.5 line) due to the 2.72 combined xG and an estimated 75% probability of at least 2 goals.

Statistics strongly favor the home side: Soroksár averages 2.13 goals scored per match and 0.80 conceded, while Kecskeméti has 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded. Soroksár led at the break in 43% of matches (6 times) versus Kecskeméti only 14% (2 times); the average goals by half are 0.93 for the home team against 0.57 for the away team, suggesting an HT lead for Soroksár. Additionally, xG of 1.75 versus 1.44, shots on target 5.87 vs 4.0 and shot conversion 15% vs 11% demonstrate the home side’s advantage in creating and converting chances. Although Kecskeméti have better recent form in the last five (80% wins vs 40% for Soroksár), the visitors concede an average of 1.00 goals after half-time compared to 0.43 for the hosts, so a turnaround after the break is less likely. On this basis the most reliable signal is Soroksár leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1, 37%), with significant alternatives being HT X/FT 1 (19%) and HT X/FT X (13%).